Spatial trend analysis of significant wave heights in the Kara Sea

• Published in: Environmental Research Letters
• Main Authors: E. E. Kruglova, S. A. Myslenkov, V. S. Platonov, Е. Е. Круглова, С. А. Мысленков, В. С. Платонов
• Other Authors: The work of E.E. Kruglova has been prepared within the theme FMWE-2024-0016 of the State Assignment of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The work of S.A. Myslenkov and V.S. Platonov was supported by the Moscow State University Development Program, project No. 23-Sh07-33. Calculations based on estimates of wind speed trends were performed by V.S. Platonov using the equipment of the Center for Collective Use “Computing Complex for Climate Modeling and Radiation Monitoring”., Работа Е.Е. Кругловой подготовлена в рамках выполнения темы FMWE-2024-0016 государственного задания Института океанологии им. П.П. Ширшова РАН. Работа С.А. Мысленкова и В.С. Платонова выполнена при поддержке Программы развития МГУ, проект № 23-Ш07-33. Расчеты по оценкам трендов скорости ветра выполнены В.С. Платоновым с использованием оборудования Центра коллективного пользования «Вычислительный комплекс для моделирования климата и радиационного мониторинга».
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Государственный научный центр Российской Федерации Арктический и антарктический научно-исследовательский институт 2024
• Subjects: тренды; trends; storm activity; wave modeling; wind speed; WAVEWATCH III; wind waves; волновая модель WAVEWATCH III; Карское море; моделирование волнения; скорость ветра; Arctic; Barents Sea; Kara Sea; Polar Science; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://www.aaresearch.science/jour/article/view/589; https://doi.org/10.30758/0555-2648-2024-70-1-6-20

Over the past decades, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic, including the Kara Sea, has been diminishing. This phenomenon has a direct impact on wind waves as the increased expansion of ice-free water influences wave height. Furthermore, alterations in the ice cover also lead to modifications in atmospheric circulation, necessitating a concurrent analysis of wind and waves to refine the understanding of their interrelationships. In this study, wave modeling data were employed using the WAVEWATCH III model and NCEP/CFSR/CFSv2 reanalyzes. Calculations were performed on a non-structural computational grid. The grid covers the Barents and Kara Seas, as well as the entire northern part of the Atlantic Ocean. The spatial resolution varies from ~ 700 m for the coastal zone of the Kara Sea, to ~ 20 km in the open part of the Kara Sea, covering the period from January 1, 1979 to December 31, 2021. Subsequently, average significant wave heights (SWH), maximum SWH, and the 95th percentile of SWH were computed for each grid node on both monthly and yearly basis. The annual values were analyzed for trends and their significance. Calculations were conducted for both the entire period and ice-free period. Positive trends in annual mean values were observed throughout the sea, with the maximum trend occurring near the boundary with the Barents Sea, barely exceeding 0.2 m/10 years. The northern and northeastern parts of the sea were characterized by significant positive trends of the maximum SWH values. Maximum trend values for the 95th percentile of SWH were also evident in the northern part of the Kara Sea. For the ice-free period, maximum trend values were notable for both the annual mean and the 95th percentile of SWH in the northern part of the sea (maximum trend values are approximately 0.25 m/10 years and 0.5 m/10 years, respectively). Significant positive trends in the annual mean SWH were characteristic of the southern part of the sea, while the largest and significant trends for maximum wave heights were observed in ...