Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction
Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observa...
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ftird:oai:ird.fr:fdi:010086059 2024-09-15T18:20:40+00:00 Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction Michel, S. L. L. Swingedouw, D. Ortega, P. Gastineau, G. /Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, G. /Khodri, Myriam ATLANTIQUE 2022 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086059 EN eng https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086059 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010086059 Michel S. L. L., Swingedouw D., Ortega P., Gastineau G., Mignot Juliette, McCarthy G., Khodri Myriam. Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. 2022, 13 (1), 5176 [14 p.] text 2022 ftird 2024-08-15T05:57:40Z Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently-a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. This study presents a last millennium reconstruction of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability fluctuations. This sufficiently long and validated reconstruction suggests the potential approach of a tipping point in the North Atlantic current system. Text north atlantic current North Atlantic IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
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IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
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description |
Atlantic multidecadal variability is a coherent mode of natural climate variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean, with strong impacts on human societies and ecosystems worldwide. However, its periodicity and drivers are widely debated due to the short temporal extent of instrumental observations and competing effects of both internal and external climate factors acting on North Atlantic surface temperature variability. Here, we use a paleoclimate database and an advanced statistical framework to generate, evaluate, and compare 312 reconstructions of the Atlantic multidecadal variability over the past millennium, based on different indices and regression methods. From this process, the best reconstruction is obtained with the random forest method, and its robustness is checked using climate model outputs and independent oceanic paleoclimate data. This reconstruction shows that memory in variations of Atlantic multidecadal variability have strongly increased recently-a potential early warning signal for the approach of a North Atlantic tipping point. This study presents a last millennium reconstruction of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability fluctuations. This sufficiently long and validated reconstruction suggests the potential approach of a tipping point in the North Atlantic current system. |
format |
Text |
author |
Michel, S. L. L. Swingedouw, D. Ortega, P. Gastineau, G. /Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, G. /Khodri, Myriam |
spellingShingle |
Michel, S. L. L. Swingedouw, D. Ortega, P. Gastineau, G. /Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, G. /Khodri, Myriam Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
author_facet |
Michel, S. L. L. Swingedouw, D. Ortega, P. Gastineau, G. /Mignot, Juliette McCarthy, G. /Khodri, Myriam |
author_sort |
Michel, S. L. L. |
title |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_short |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_full |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_fullStr |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction |
title_sort |
early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial atlantic multidecadal variability reconstruction |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086059 |
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ATLANTIQUE |
genre |
north atlantic current North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
north atlantic current North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010086059 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010086059 Michel S. L. L., Swingedouw D., Ortega P., Gastineau G., Mignot Juliette, McCarthy G., Khodri Myriam. Early warning signal for a tipping point suggested by a millennial Atlantic Multidecadal Variability reconstruction. 2022, 13 (1), 5176 [14 p.] |
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1810459058300256256 |