Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast
This study investigates the origin and features of interannual-decadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability from several ocean simulations, including a large (50 member) ensemble of global, eddy-permitting (1/4 degrees) ocean-sea ice hindcasts. After an initial stochastic p...
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ftird:oai:ird.fr:fdi:010072411 2023-05-15T18:18:46+02:00 Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast Leroux, S. Penduff, T. Bessieres, L. Molines, J. M. Brankart, J. M. Sérazin, Guillaume Barnier, B. Terray, L. ATLANTIQUE 2018 http://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072411 EN eng http://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072411 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010072411 Leroux S., Penduff T., Bessieres L., Molines J. M., Brankart J. M., Sérazin Guillaume, Barnier B., Terray L. Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast. Journal of Climate, 2018, 31 (3), p. 1183-1203. text 2018 ftird 2020-08-21T06:49:59Z This study investigates the origin and features of interannual-decadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability from several ocean simulations, including a large (50 member) ensemble of global, eddy-permitting (1/4 degrees) ocean-sea ice hindcasts. After an initial stochastic perturbation, each member is driven by the same realistic atmospheric forcing over 1960-2015. The magnitude, spatiotemporal scales, and patterns of both the atmospherically forced and intrinsic-chaotic interannual AMOC variability are then characterized from the ensemble mean and ensemble spread, respectively. The analysis of the ensemble-mean variability shows that the AMOC fluctuations north of 40 degrees N are largely driven by the atmospheric variability, which forces meridionally coherent fluctuations reaching decadal time scales. The amplitude of the intrinsic interannual AMOC variability never exceeds the atmospherically forced contribution in the Atlantic basin, but it reaches up to 100% of the latter around 35 degrees S and 60% in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The intrinsic AMOC variability exhibits a large-scale meridional coherence, especially south of 25 degrees N. An EOF analysis over the basin shows two large-scale leading modes that together explain 60% of the interannual intrinsic variability. The first mode is likely excited by intrinsic oceanic processes at the southern end of the basin and affects latitudes up to 40 degrees N; the second mode is mostly restricted to, and excited within, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. These features of the intrinsic, chaotic variability (intensity, patterns, and random phase) are barely sensitive to the atmospheric evolution, and they strongly resemble the "pure intrinsic' interannual AMOC variability that emerges in climatological simulations under repeated seasonal-cycle forcing. These results raise questions about the attribution of observed and simulated AMOC signals and about the possible impact of intrinsic signals on the atmosphere. Text Sea ice IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
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Open Polar |
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IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
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ftird |
language |
English |
description |
This study investigates the origin and features of interannual-decadal Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability from several ocean simulations, including a large (50 member) ensemble of global, eddy-permitting (1/4 degrees) ocean-sea ice hindcasts. After an initial stochastic perturbation, each member is driven by the same realistic atmospheric forcing over 1960-2015. The magnitude, spatiotemporal scales, and patterns of both the atmospherically forced and intrinsic-chaotic interannual AMOC variability are then characterized from the ensemble mean and ensemble spread, respectively. The analysis of the ensemble-mean variability shows that the AMOC fluctuations north of 40 degrees N are largely driven by the atmospheric variability, which forces meridionally coherent fluctuations reaching decadal time scales. The amplitude of the intrinsic interannual AMOC variability never exceeds the atmospherically forced contribution in the Atlantic basin, but it reaches up to 100% of the latter around 35 degrees S and 60% in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. The intrinsic AMOC variability exhibits a large-scale meridional coherence, especially south of 25 degrees N. An EOF analysis over the basin shows two large-scale leading modes that together explain 60% of the interannual intrinsic variability. The first mode is likely excited by intrinsic oceanic processes at the southern end of the basin and affects latitudes up to 40 degrees N; the second mode is mostly restricted to, and excited within, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. These features of the intrinsic, chaotic variability (intensity, patterns, and random phase) are barely sensitive to the atmospheric evolution, and they strongly resemble the "pure intrinsic' interannual AMOC variability that emerges in climatological simulations under repeated seasonal-cycle forcing. These results raise questions about the attribution of observed and simulated AMOC signals and about the possible impact of intrinsic signals on the atmosphere. |
format |
Text |
author |
Leroux, S. Penduff, T. Bessieres, L. Molines, J. M. Brankart, J. M. Sérazin, Guillaume Barnier, B. Terray, L. |
spellingShingle |
Leroux, S. Penduff, T. Bessieres, L. Molines, J. M. Brankart, J. M. Sérazin, Guillaume Barnier, B. Terray, L. Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast |
author_facet |
Leroux, S. Penduff, T. Bessieres, L. Molines, J. M. Brankart, J. M. Sérazin, Guillaume Barnier, B. Terray, L. |
author_sort |
Leroux, S. |
title |
Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast |
title_short |
Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast |
title_full |
Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast |
title_fullStr |
Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast |
title_full_unstemmed |
Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast |
title_sort |
intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the amoc : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072411 |
op_coverage |
ATLANTIQUE |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072411 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010072411 Leroux S., Penduff T., Bessieres L., Molines J. M., Brankart J. M., Sérazin Guillaume, Barnier B., Terray L. Intrinsic and atmospherically forced variability of the AMOC : insights from a large-ensemble ocean hindcast. Journal of Climate, 2018, 31 (3), p. 1183-1203. |
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1766195459609591808 |