Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensui...
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ftird:oai:ird.fr:fdi:010070248 2024-09-15T18:09:11+00:00 Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability /Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A. M. /Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J. P. GROENLAND ATLANTIQUE NORD AFRIQUE DE l'OUEST SAHEL 2017 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070248 EN eng https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070248 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010070248 Defrance Dimitri, Ramstein G., Charbit S., Vrac M., Famien A. M., Sultan Benjamin, Swingedouw D., Dumas C., Gemenne F., Alvarez-Solas J., Vanderlinden J. P. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. 2017, 114 (25), p. 6533-6538 climate change ice sheet melting impact vulnerability Sahel text 2017 ftird 2024-08-15T05:57:41Z The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. Text Greenland Groenland Ice Sheet IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
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Open Polar |
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IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
op_collection_id |
ftird |
language |
English |
topic |
climate change ice sheet melting impact vulnerability Sahel |
spellingShingle |
climate change ice sheet melting impact vulnerability Sahel /Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A. M. /Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J. P. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
topic_facet |
climate change ice sheet melting impact vulnerability Sahel |
description |
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. |
format |
Text |
author |
/Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A. M. /Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J. P. |
author_facet |
/Defrance, Dimitri Ramstein, G. Charbit, S. Vrac, M. Famien, A. M. /Sultan, Benjamin Swingedouw, D. Dumas, C. Gemenne, F. Alvarez-Solas, J. Vanderlinden, J. P. |
author_sort |
/Defrance, Dimitri |
title |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_short |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_full |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_fullStr |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability |
title_sort |
consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the sahelian population vulnerability |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070248 |
op_coverage |
GROENLAND ATLANTIQUE NORD AFRIQUE DE l'OUEST SAHEL |
genre |
Greenland Groenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Greenland Groenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070248 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010070248 Defrance Dimitri, Ramstein G., Charbit S., Vrac M., Famien A. M., Sultan Benjamin, Swingedouw D., Dumas C., Gemenne F., Alvarez-Solas J., Vanderlinden J. P. Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. 2017, 114 (25), p. 6533-6538 |
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1810446613241397248 |