Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model
This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential...
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ftird:oai:ird.fr:fdi:010060873 2024-09-15T18:20:30+00:00 Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model Presentation and analysis of the IPSL and CNRM climate models used in CMIP5 Persechino, A. /Mignot, Juliette Swingedouw, D. Labetoulle, S. Guilyardi, E. OCEAN ATLANTIQUE ZONE MERIDIONALE 2013 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060873 EN eng https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060873 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010060873 Persechino A., Mignot Juliette, Swingedouw D., Labetoulle S., Guilyardi E. Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. In : . Presentation and analysis of the IPSL and CNRM climate models used in CMIP5 2013, 40 (9-10), p. 2359-2380 Decadal climate predictability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Diagnostic and prognostic potential predictability Ocean and climate dynamics text 2013 ftird 2024-08-15T05:57:42Z This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates. Text Nordic Seas North Atlantic IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRD (Institute de recherche pour le développement): Horizon |
op_collection_id |
ftird |
language |
English |
topic |
Decadal climate predictability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Diagnostic and prognostic potential predictability Ocean and climate dynamics |
spellingShingle |
Decadal climate predictability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Diagnostic and prognostic potential predictability Ocean and climate dynamics Persechino, A. /Mignot, Juliette Swingedouw, D. Labetoulle, S. Guilyardi, E. Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model |
topic_facet |
Decadal climate predictability Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Diagnostic and prognostic potential predictability Ocean and climate dynamics |
description |
This study explores the decadal potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as represented in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model, along with the predictability of associated oceanic and atmospheric fields. Using a 1000-year control run, we analyze the prognostic potential predictability (PPP) of the AMOC through ensembles of simulations with perturbed initial conditions. Based on a measure of the ensemble spread, the modelled AMOC has an average predictive skill of 8 years, with some degree of dependence on the AMOC initial state. Diagnostic potential predictability of surface temperature and precipitation is also identified in the control run and compared to the PPP. Both approaches clearly bring out the same regions exhibiting the highest predictive skill. Generally, surface temperature has the highest skill up to 2 decades in the far North Atlantic ocean. There are also weak signals over a few oceanic areas in the tropics and subtropics. Predictability over land is restricted to the coastal areas bordering oceanic predictable regions. Potential predictability at interannual and longer timescales is largely absent for precipitation in spite of weak signals identified mainly in the Nordic Seas. Regions of weak signals show some dependence on AMOC initial state. All the identified regions are closely linked to decadal AMOC fluctuations suggesting that the potential predictability of climate arises from the mechanisms controlling these fluctuations. Evidence for dependence on AMOC initial state also suggests that studying skills from case studies may prove more useful to understand predictability mechanisms than computing average skill from numerous start dates. |
format |
Text |
author |
Persechino, A. /Mignot, Juliette Swingedouw, D. Labetoulle, S. Guilyardi, E. |
author_facet |
Persechino, A. /Mignot, Juliette Swingedouw, D. Labetoulle, S. Guilyardi, E. |
author_sort |
Persechino, A. |
title |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model |
title_short |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model |
title_full |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model |
title_fullStr |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model |
title_sort |
decadal predictability of the atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the ipsl-cm5a-lr model |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060873 |
op_coverage |
OCEAN ATLANTIQUE ZONE MERIDIONALE |
genre |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Nordic Seas North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010060873 oai:ird.fr:fdi:010060873 Persechino A., Mignot Juliette, Swingedouw D., Labetoulle S., Guilyardi E. Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. In : . Presentation and analysis of the IPSL and CNRM climate models used in CMIP5 2013, 40 (9-10), p. 2359-2380 |
_version_ |
1810458890304749568 |