Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front
International audience The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (...
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:insu-03726895v1 2023-12-10T09:51:45+01:00 Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) 2022 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/file/wcd-3-601-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 insu-03726895 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/file/wcd-3-601-2022.pdf BIBCODE: 2022WCD.3.601S doi:10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2698-4016 Weather and Climate Dynamics https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895 Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, 3, pp.601-623. ⟨10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 2023-11-15T17:28:48Z International audience The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a tripole pattern of change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In this study, the tripole pattern is qualitatively reproduced by simulating the change of a storm track generated downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) front under uniform warming on an aquaplanet. The simulated tripole pattern consists of reduced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) upstream and equatorward of the SST front, extended and poleward shifted enhanced EKE downstream of the SST front, and a regionally reduced EKE increase at polar latitudes. In the absence of the idealized SST front, in contrast, the storm track exhibits a poleward shift but no tripole pattern. A detailed analysis of the EKE and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) sources and sinks reveals that the changes are locally driven by changes in baroclinic conversion rather than diabatic processes. However, globally the change in baroclinic conversion averages to zero; thus the observed global EAPE increase results from diabatic generation. In particular, resolved-scale condensation plus parameterized cloud physics dominate the global EAPE increase followed by longwave radiation. Amplified stationary waves affect EKE and EAPE advection, which contributes to the local EKE and EAPE minimum at polar latitudes. Feature-based tracking provides further insight into cyclone life cycle changes downstream of the SST front. Moderately deepening cyclones deepen less in a warmer climate, while strongly deepening cyclones deepen more. Similarly, the average cyclone becomes less intense in a warmer climate, while the extremely intense cyclones become more intense. Both results hold true for cyclones with genesis in the vicinity of the SST front and elsewhere. The mean ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 2 601 623 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience The future evolution of storm tracks, their intensity, shape, and location, is an important driver of regional precipitation changes, cyclone-associated weather extremes, and regional climate patterns. For the North Atlantic storm track, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) data indicate a tripole pattern of change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In this study, the tripole pattern is qualitatively reproduced by simulating the change of a storm track generated downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) front under uniform warming on an aquaplanet. The simulated tripole pattern consists of reduced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) upstream and equatorward of the SST front, extended and poleward shifted enhanced EKE downstream of the SST front, and a regionally reduced EKE increase at polar latitudes. In the absence of the idealized SST front, in contrast, the storm track exhibits a poleward shift but no tripole pattern. A detailed analysis of the EKE and eddy available potential energy (EAPE) sources and sinks reveals that the changes are locally driven by changes in baroclinic conversion rather than diabatic processes. However, globally the change in baroclinic conversion averages to zero; thus the observed global EAPE increase results from diabatic generation. In particular, resolved-scale condensation plus parameterized cloud physics dominate the global EAPE increase followed by longwave radiation. Amplified stationary waves affect EKE and EAPE advection, which contributes to the local EKE and EAPE minimum at polar latitudes. Feature-based tracking provides further insight into cyclone life cycle changes downstream of the SST front. Moderately deepening cyclones deepen less in a warmer climate, while strongly deepening cyclones deepen more. Similarly, the average cyclone becomes less intense in a warmer climate, while the extremely intense cyclones become more intense. Both results hold true for cyclones with genesis in the vicinity of the SST front and elsewhere. The mean ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal |
author_facet |
Schemm, Sebastian Papritz, Lukas Rivière, Gwendal |
author_sort |
Schemm, Sebastian |
title |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_short |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_full |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_fullStr |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_full_unstemmed |
Storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
title_sort |
storm track response to uniform global warming downstream of an idealized sea surface temperature front |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/file/wcd-3-601-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2698-4016 Weather and Climate Dynamics https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895 Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, 3, pp.601-623. ⟨10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 insu-03726895 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726895/file/wcd-3-601-2022.pdf BIBCODE: 2022WCD.3.601S doi:10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-601-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
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2 |
container_start_page |
601 |
op_container_end_page |
623 |
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