Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux
International audience We use a statistical emulation technique to construct synthetic ensembles of global and regional sea-air carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux from four observation-based products over 1985-2014. Much like ensembles of Earth system models that are constructed by perturbing their initial...
Published in: | Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2022
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/file/Global%20Biogeochemical%20Cycles%20-%202022%20-%20Olivarez%20-%20Alternate%20Histories%20Synthetic%20Large%20Ensembles%20of%20Sea%25E2%2580%2590Air%20CO2%20Flux.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007174 |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:insu-03721925v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
global carbon cycle air-sea CO 2 flux ocean carbon uptake large ensemble Earth system modeling decadal trends [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
global carbon cycle air-sea CO 2 flux ocean carbon uptake large ensemble Earth system modeling decadal trends [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Olivarez, Holly C. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Brady, Riley X. Fay, Amanda R. Gehlen, Marion Gregor, Luke Landschützer, Peter Mckinley, Galen A. Mckinnon, Karen A. Munro, David R. Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux |
topic_facet |
global carbon cycle air-sea CO 2 flux ocean carbon uptake large ensemble Earth system modeling decadal trends [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience We use a statistical emulation technique to construct synthetic ensembles of global and regional sea-air carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux from four observation-based products over 1985-2014. Much like ensembles of Earth system models that are constructed by perturbing their initial conditions, our synthetic ensemble members exhibit different phasing of internal variability and a common externally forced signal. Our synthetic ensembles illustrate an important role for internal variability in the temporal evolution of global and regional CO 2 flux and produce a wide range of possible trends over 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. We assume a specific externally forced signal and calculate the rank of the observed trends within the distribution of statistically modeled synthetic trends during these periods. Over the decade 1990-1999, three of four observation-based products exhibit small negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO 2 flux (i.e., enhanced ocean CO 2 absorption with time) that are within one standard deviation of the mean in their respective synthetic ensembles. Over the decade 2000-2009, however, three products show large negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO 2 flux that have a low rate of occurrence in their synthetic ensembles. The largest positive trends in global and Southern Ocean flux over 1990-1999 and the largest negative trends over 2000-2009 fall nearly two standard deviations away from the mean in their ensembles. Our approach provides a new perspective on the important role of internal variability in sea-air CO 2 flux trends, and furthers understanding of the role of internal and external processes in driving observed sea-air CO 2 flux variability. |
author2 |
University of Colorado Boulder Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Columbia University New York Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics ETH Zürich (IBP) Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich (D-USYS) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Department of Statistics Los Angeles University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Olivarez, Holly C. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Brady, Riley X. Fay, Amanda R. Gehlen, Marion Gregor, Luke Landschützer, Peter Mckinley, Galen A. Mckinnon, Karen A. Munro, David R. |
author_facet |
Olivarez, Holly C. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Brady, Riley X. Fay, Amanda R. Gehlen, Marion Gregor, Luke Landschützer, Peter Mckinley, Galen A. Mckinnon, Karen A. Munro, David R. |
author_sort |
Olivarez, Holly C. |
title |
Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux |
title_short |
Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux |
title_full |
Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux |
title_fullStr |
Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux |
title_full_unstemmed |
Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux |
title_sort |
alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air co 2 flux |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/file/Global%20Biogeochemical%20Cycles%20-%202022%20-%20Olivarez%20-%20Alternate%20Histories%20Synthetic%20Large%20Ensembles%20of%20Sea%25E2%2580%2590Air%20CO2%20Flux.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007174 |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0886-6236 EISSN: 1944-8224 Global Biogeochemical Cycles https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925 Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2022, 36 (6), pp.e2021GB007174. ⟨10.1029/2021GB007174⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021GB007174 insu-03721925 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/file/Global%20Biogeochemical%20Cycles%20-%202022%20-%20Olivarez%20-%20Alternate%20Histories%20Synthetic%20Large%20Ensembles%20of%20Sea%25E2%2580%2590Air%20CO2%20Flux.pdf BIBCODE: 2022GBioC.3607174O doi:10.1029/2021GB007174 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007174 |
container_title |
Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
container_volume |
36 |
container_issue |
6 |
_version_ |
1797570591160532992 |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:insu-03721925v1 2024-04-28T08:39:39+00:00 Alternate histories: synthetic large ensembles of sea-air CO 2 flux Olivarez, Holly C. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Brady, Riley X. Fay, Amanda R. Gehlen, Marion Gregor, Luke Landschützer, Peter Mckinley, Galen A. Mckinnon, Karen A. Munro, David R. University of Colorado Boulder Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Columbia University New York Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics ETH Zürich (IBP) Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich (D-USYS) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft Department of Statistics Los Angeles University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) University of California (UC)-University of California (UC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2022 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/file/Global%20Biogeochemical%20Cycles%20-%202022%20-%20Olivarez%20-%20Alternate%20Histories%20Synthetic%20Large%20Ensembles%20of%20Sea%25E2%2580%2590Air%20CO2%20Flux.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007174 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2021GB007174 insu-03721925 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925/file/Global%20Biogeochemical%20Cycles%20-%202022%20-%20Olivarez%20-%20Alternate%20Histories%20Synthetic%20Large%20Ensembles%20of%20Sea%25E2%2580%2590Air%20CO2%20Flux.pdf BIBCODE: 2022GBioC.3607174O doi:10.1029/2021GB007174 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0886-6236 EISSN: 1944-8224 Global Biogeochemical Cycles https://insu.hal.science/insu-03721925 Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2022, 36 (6), pp.e2021GB007174. ⟨10.1029/2021GB007174⟩ global carbon cycle air-sea CO 2 flux ocean carbon uptake large ensemble Earth system modeling decadal trends [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007174 2024-04-05T00:31:43Z International audience We use a statistical emulation technique to construct synthetic ensembles of global and regional sea-air carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux from four observation-based products over 1985-2014. Much like ensembles of Earth system models that are constructed by perturbing their initial conditions, our synthetic ensemble members exhibit different phasing of internal variability and a common externally forced signal. Our synthetic ensembles illustrate an important role for internal variability in the temporal evolution of global and regional CO 2 flux and produce a wide range of possible trends over 1990-1999 and 2000-2009. We assume a specific externally forced signal and calculate the rank of the observed trends within the distribution of statistically modeled synthetic trends during these periods. Over the decade 1990-1999, three of four observation-based products exhibit small negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO 2 flux (i.e., enhanced ocean CO 2 absorption with time) that are within one standard deviation of the mean in their respective synthetic ensembles. Over the decade 2000-2009, however, three products show large negative trends in globally integrated sea-air CO 2 flux that have a low rate of occurrence in their synthetic ensembles. The largest positive trends in global and Southern Ocean flux over 1990-1999 and the largest negative trends over 2000-2009 fall nearly two standard deviations away from the mean in their ensembles. Our approach provides a new perspective on the important role of internal variability in sea-air CO 2 flux trends, and furthers understanding of the role of internal and external processes in driving observed sea-air CO 2 flux variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36 6 |