Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries
International audience Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipita...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:insu-00378402v1 2024-04-28T08:21:29+00:00 Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Gallée, Hubert Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. Département de Géographie Université de Liège Department of Geography Sheffield University of Sheffield Sheffield Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Departement Geografie Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) 2008 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/file/tc-2-117-2008.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 insu-00378402 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/file/tc-2-117-2008.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402 The Cryosphere, 2008, 2 (2), pp.117-129. ⟨10.5194/tc-2-117-2008⟩ [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2008 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 2024-04-05T00:35:45Z International audience Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s and corresponds to a zero SMB rate. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU The Cryosphere 2 2 117 129 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Gallée, Hubert Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience Results from a regional climate simulation (1970–2006) over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) reveals that more than 97% of the interannual variability of the modelled Surface Mass Balance (SMB) can be explained by the GrIS summer temperature anomaly and the GrIS annual precipitation anomaly. This multiple regression is then used to empirically estimate the GrIS SMB since 1900 from climatological time series. The projected SMB changes in the 21st century are investigated with the set of simulations performed with atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). These estimates show that the high surface mass loss rates of recent years are not unprecedented in the GrIS history of the last hundred years. The minimum SMB rate seems to have occurred earlier in the 1930s and corresponds to a zero SMB rate. The AOGCMs project that the SMB rate of the 1930s would be common at the end of 2100. The temperature would be higher than in the 1930s but the increase of accumulation in the 21st century would partly offset the acceleration of surface melt due to the temperature increase. However, these assumptions are based on an empirical multiple regression only validated for recent/current climatic conditions, and the accuracy and time homogeneity of the data sets and AOGCM results used in these estimations constitute a large uncertainty. |
author2 |
Département de Géographie Université de Liège Department of Geography Sheffield University of Sheffield Sheffield Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Departement Geografie Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Gallée, Hubert Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. |
author_facet |
Fettweis, Xavier Hanna, E. Gallée, Hubert Huybrechts, P. Erpicum, M. |
author_sort |
Fettweis, Xavier |
title |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries |
title_short |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries |
title_full |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries |
title_fullStr |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries |
title_sort |
estimation of the greenland ice sheet surface mass balance for the 20th and 21st centuries |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/file/tc-2-117-2008.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402 The Cryosphere, 2008, 2 (2), pp.117-129. ⟨10.5194/tc-2-117-2008⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 insu-00378402 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402 https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-00378402/file/tc-2-117-2008.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2-117-2008 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
117 |
op_container_end_page |
129 |
_version_ |
1797583800838914048 |