Spring phenology in boreal Eurasia over a nearly century time scale

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: Delbart, Nicolas, Picard, Ghislain, Le Toan, Thuy, Kergoat, Laurent, Quegan, Shaun, Woodward, Ian, Dye, Dennis, Fedotova, Violetta
• Other Authors: Centre for Medical Research, The University of Western Australia (UWA), Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics Sheffield, University of Sheffield Sheffield, Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Animal and Plant Sciences Sheffield, Komarov Institute of Botany, European Commission Framework 4 Contract EVG1-CT-2001-00048.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2008
• Subjects: boreal; climatic change; Eurasia; in situ; leaf appearance; modelling; NDVI; phenology; remote sensing; Russia; spring; taiga; time series; trend; [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology; Siberia
• Online Access: https://insu.hal.science/insu-00376221; https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01505.x

International audience It has been widely reported that tree leaves have tended to appear earlier in many regions of the northern hemisphere in the last few decades, reflecting climate warming. Satellite observations revealed an 8-day advance in leaf appearance date between 1982 and 1991 in northern latitudes. In situ observations show that leaf appearance dates in Europe have advanced by an average of 6.3 days from 1959 to 1996. Modelling of leaf appearance on the basis of temperature also shows a marked advance in temperate and boreal regions from 1955 to 2002. However, before 1955, reported studies of phenological variations are restricted to local scale. Modelling, ground observations and satellite observations are here combined to analyse phenological variations in Eurasian taiga over nearly a century. The trend observed by remote sensing consists mainly in a shift at the end of the 1980s, reflecting a shift in winter and spring temperature. In western boreal Eurasia, a trend to earlier leaf appearance is evident since the mid-1930s, although it is discontinuous. In contrast, the strong advance in leaf appearance detected over Central Siberia using satellite data in 1982–1991 is strengthened by late springs in 1983–1984; moreover, in this region the green-up timing has displayed successive trends with opposite signs since 1920. Thus, such strong trend is not unusual if considered locally. However, the recent advance is unique in simultaneously affecting most of the Eurasian taiga, the leaf appearance dates after 1990 being the earliest in nearly a century in most of the area.