Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations
International audience As well as having an impact on the background state of the climate, global warming due to human activities could affect its natural oscillations and internal variability. In this study, we use four initial-condition ensembles from the CMIP6 framework to investigate the potenti...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04685656 https://hal.science/hal-04685656/document https://hal.science/hal-04685656/file/Coquereau_et_al_JC2024inpress.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-04685656v1 2024-09-15T18:35:29+00:00 Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations Coquereau, Arthur Sévellec, Florian Huck, Thierry Hirschi, Joël J.-M. Hochet, Antoine Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton CNRS/INSU/LEFE project ARVOR ESA Living Planet Fellowship (PACIFIC project) ANR-17-EURE-0015,ISBlue,Interdisciplinary Graduate School for the Blue planet(2017) ANR-19-CHIA-0016,OceaniX,Physics-Informed AI for Observation-driven Ocean AnalytiX(2019) 2024 https://hal.science/hal-04685656 https://hal.science/hal-04685656/document https://hal.science/hal-04685656/file/Coquereau_et_al_JC2024inpress.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 hal-04685656 https://hal.science/hal-04685656 https://hal.science/hal-04685656/document https://hal.science/hal-04685656/file/Coquereau_et_al_JC2024inpress.pdf doi:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-04685656 Journal of Climate, 2024, 37 (14), pp.3723-3739. ⟨10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1⟩ ENSO Anthropogenic effects/forcing Climate Ensembles Interannual variability Internal variability [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2024 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 2024-09-05T01:02:18Z International audience As well as having an impact on the background state of the climate, global warming due to human activities could affect its natural oscillations and internal variability. In this study, we use four initial-condition ensembles from the CMIP6 framework to investigate the potential evolution of internal climate variability under different warming pathways for the twenty-first century. Our results suggest significant changes in natural climate variability and point to two distinct regimes driving these changes. The first is a decrease in internal variability of surface air temperature at high latitudes and all frequencies, associated with a poleward shift and the gradual disappearance of sea ice edges, which we show to be an important component of internal variability. The second is an intensification of the interannual variability of surface air temperature and precipitation at low latitudes, which appears to be associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This second regime is particularly alarming because it may contribute to making the climate more unstable and less predictable, with a significant impact on human societies and ecosystems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Journal of Climate 37 14 3723 3739 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
ENSO Anthropogenic effects/forcing Climate Ensembles Interannual variability Internal variability [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
ENSO Anthropogenic effects/forcing Climate Ensembles Interannual variability Internal variability [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Coquereau, Arthur Sévellec, Florian Huck, Thierry Hirschi, Joël J.-M. Hochet, Antoine Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations |
topic_facet |
ENSO Anthropogenic effects/forcing Climate Ensembles Interannual variability Internal variability [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience As well as having an impact on the background state of the climate, global warming due to human activities could affect its natural oscillations and internal variability. In this study, we use four initial-condition ensembles from the CMIP6 framework to investigate the potential evolution of internal climate variability under different warming pathways for the twenty-first century. Our results suggest significant changes in natural climate variability and point to two distinct regimes driving these changes. The first is a decrease in internal variability of surface air temperature at high latitudes and all frequencies, associated with a poleward shift and the gradual disappearance of sea ice edges, which we show to be an important component of internal variability. The second is an intensification of the interannual variability of surface air temperature and precipitation at low latitudes, which appears to be associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This second regime is particularly alarming because it may contribute to making the climate more unstable and less predictable, with a significant impact on human societies and ecosystems. |
author2 |
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC) University of Southampton CNRS/INSU/LEFE project ARVOR ESA Living Planet Fellowship (PACIFIC project) ANR-17-EURE-0015,ISBlue,Interdisciplinary Graduate School for the Blue planet(2017) ANR-19-CHIA-0016,OceaniX,Physics-Informed AI for Observation-driven Ocean AnalytiX(2019) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Coquereau, Arthur Sévellec, Florian Huck, Thierry Hirschi, Joël J.-M. Hochet, Antoine |
author_facet |
Coquereau, Arthur Sévellec, Florian Huck, Thierry Hirschi, Joël J.-M. Hochet, Antoine |
author_sort |
Coquereau, Arthur |
title |
Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations |
title_short |
Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations |
title_full |
Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic Changes in Interannual-to-Decadal Climate Variability in CMIP6 Multiensemble Simulations |
title_sort |
anthropogenic changes in interannual-to-decadal climate variability in cmip6 multiensemble simulations |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04685656 https://hal.science/hal-04685656/document https://hal.science/hal-04685656/file/Coquereau_et_al_JC2024inpress.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-04685656 Journal of Climate, 2024, 37 (14), pp.3723-3739. ⟨10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 hal-04685656 https://hal.science/hal-04685656 https://hal.science/hal-04685656/document https://hal.science/hal-04685656/file/Coquereau_et_al_JC2024inpress.pdf doi:10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0606.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
37 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
3723 |
op_container_end_page |
3739 |
_version_ |
1810478663277215744 |