Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review
International audience Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include t...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2024
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04446670 https://hal.science/hal-04446670/document https://hal.science/hal-04446670/file/esd2024Wunderling15.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
id |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-04446670v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Wunderling, Nico von der Heydt, Anna, S Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline, H Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa, Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John, T Chiessi, Cristiano, M Coxall, Helen, K Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan, F Falkena, Swinda, K J Klose, Ann, Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman, Julius Willeit, Matteo Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 • C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 • C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wunderling, Nico von der Heydt, Anna, S Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline, H Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa, Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John, T Chiessi, Cristiano, M Coxall, Helen, K Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan, F Falkena, Swinda, K J Klose, Ann, Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman, Julius Willeit, Matteo |
author_facet |
Wunderling, Nico von der Heydt, Anna, S Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline, H Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa, Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John, T Chiessi, Cristiano, M Coxall, Helen, K Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan, F Falkena, Swinda, K J Klose, Ann, Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman, Julius Willeit, Matteo |
author_sort |
Wunderling, Nico |
title |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_short |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_full |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_fullStr |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
title_sort |
climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04446670 https://hal.science/hal-04446670/document https://hal.science/hal-04446670/file/esd2024Wunderling15.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 2190-4979 EISSN: 2190-4987 Earth System Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-04446670 Earth System Dynamics, 2024, 15 (1), pp.41 - 74. ⟨10.5194/esd-15-41-2024⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 hal-04446670 https://hal.science/hal-04446670 https://hal.science/hal-04446670/document https://hal.science/hal-04446670/file/esd2024Wunderling15.pdf doi:10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
41 |
op_container_end_page |
74 |
_version_ |
1797584036774805504 |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-04446670v1 2024-04-28T08:22:21+00:00 Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review Wunderling, Nico von der Heydt, Anna, S Aksenov, Yevgeny Barker, Stephen Bastiaansen, Robbin Brovkin, Victor Brunetti, Maura Couplet, Victor Kleinen, Thomas Lear, Caroline, H Lohmann, Johannes Roman-Cuesta, Rosa, Maria Sinet, Sacha Swingedouw, Didier Winkelmann, Ricarda Anand, Pallavi Barichivich, Jonathan Bathiany, Sebastian Baudena, Mara Bruun, John, T Chiessi, Cristiano, M Coxall, Helen, K Docquier, David Donges, Jonathan, F Falkena, Swinda, K J Klose, Ann, Kristin Obura, David Rocha, Juan Rynders, Stefanie Steinert, Norman, Julius Willeit, Matteo Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) 2024-01-26 https://hal.science/hal-04446670 https://hal.science/hal-04446670/document https://hal.science/hal-04446670/file/esd2024Wunderling15.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 hal-04446670 https://hal.science/hal-04446670 https://hal.science/hal-04446670/document https://hal.science/hal-04446670/file/esd2024Wunderling15.pdf doi:10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2190-4979 EISSN: 2190-4987 Earth System Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-04446670 Earth System Dynamics, 2024, 15 (1), pp.41 - 74. ⟨10.5194/esd-15-41-2024⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2024 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-41-2024 2024-04-05T00:27:06Z International audience Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 • C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 • C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Ice Sheet permafrost Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Earth System Dynamics 15 1 41 74 |