Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level
International audience Abstract. Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation, an increase in extreme snowfall may be expected in cold regions, e.g., for high latitudes or at high elevations. By contrast, in low- to medium-elevation areas, the probability of experiencing rainfall instea...
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-04380405v1 2024-04-21T08:12:39+00:00 Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level Le Roux, Erwan Evin, Guillaume Samacoïts, Raphaëlle Eckert, Nicolas Blanchet, Juliette Morin, Samuel Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2023-11-08 https://hal.science/hal-04380405 https://hal.science/hal-04380405/document https://hal.science/hal-04380405/file/tc-17-4691-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 hal-04380405 https://hal.science/hal-04380405 https://hal.science/hal-04380405/document https://hal.science/hal-04380405/file/tc-17-4691-2023.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-04380405 The Cryosphere, 2023, 17 (11), pp.4691-4704. ⟨10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 2024-04-05T00:27:06Z International audience Abstract. Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation, an increase in extreme snowfall may be expected in cold regions, e.g., for high latitudes or at high elevations. By contrast, in low- to medium-elevation areas, the probability of experiencing rainfall instead of snowfall is generally projected to increase due to warming conditions. Yet, in mountainous areas, despite the likely existence of these contrasted trends according to elevation, changes in extreme snowfall with warming remain poorly quantified. This paper assesses projected changes in heavy and extreme snowfall, i.e., in mean annual maxima and 100-year return levels, in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level. We apply a recent methodology, based on the analysis of annual maxima with non-stationary extreme value models, to an ensemble of 20 adjusted general circulation model–regional climate model (GCM–RCM) pairs from the EURO-CORDEX experiment under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. For each of the 23 massifs of the French Alps, maxima in the hydrological sense (1 August to 31 July) are provided from 1951 to 2100 and every 300 m of elevations between 900 and 3600 m. Results rely on relative or absolute changes computed with respect to current climate conditions (corresponding here to +1 ∘C global warming level) at the massif scale and averaged over all massifs. Overall, daily mean annual maxima of snowfall are projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while 100-year return levels are projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, values are on average projected to increase until +3 ∘C of global warming and then decrease. At +4 ∘C, average relative changes in mean annual maxima and 100-year return levels, respectively, vary from −26 % and −15 % at 900 m to +3 % and +8 % at 3600 m. Finally, for each global warming level between +1.5 and +4 ∘C, we compute the elevation threshold that separates ... Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU The Cryosphere 17 11 4691 4704 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Le Roux, Erwan Evin, Guillaume Samacoïts, Raphaëlle Eckert, Nicolas Blanchet, Juliette Morin, Samuel Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Abstract. Following the projected increase in extreme precipitation, an increase in extreme snowfall may be expected in cold regions, e.g., for high latitudes or at high elevations. By contrast, in low- to medium-elevation areas, the probability of experiencing rainfall instead of snowfall is generally projected to increase due to warming conditions. Yet, in mountainous areas, despite the likely existence of these contrasted trends according to elevation, changes in extreme snowfall with warming remain poorly quantified. This paper assesses projected changes in heavy and extreme snowfall, i.e., in mean annual maxima and 100-year return levels, in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level. We apply a recent methodology, based on the analysis of annual maxima with non-stationary extreme value models, to an ensemble of 20 adjusted general circulation model–regional climate model (GCM–RCM) pairs from the EURO-CORDEX experiment under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. For each of the 23 massifs of the French Alps, maxima in the hydrological sense (1 August to 31 July) are provided from 1951 to 2100 and every 300 m of elevations between 900 and 3600 m. Results rely on relative or absolute changes computed with respect to current climate conditions (corresponding here to +1 ∘C global warming level) at the massif scale and averaged over all massifs. Overall, daily mean annual maxima of snowfall are projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while 100-year return levels are projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, values are on average projected to increase until +3 ∘C of global warming and then decrease. At +4 ∘C, average relative changes in mean annual maxima and 100-year return levels, respectively, vary from −26 % and −15 % at 900 m to +3 % and +8 % at 3600 m. Finally, for each global warming level between +1.5 and +4 ∘C, we compute the elevation threshold that separates ... |
author2 |
Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Le Roux, Erwan Evin, Guillaume Samacoïts, Raphaëlle Eckert, Nicolas Blanchet, Juliette Morin, Samuel |
author_facet |
Le Roux, Erwan Evin, Guillaume Samacoïts, Raphaëlle Eckert, Nicolas Blanchet, Juliette Morin, Samuel |
author_sort |
Le Roux, Erwan |
title |
Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level |
title_short |
Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level |
title_full |
Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level |
title_fullStr |
Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projection of snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level |
title_sort |
projection of snowfall extremes in the french alps as a function of elevation and global warming level |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04380405 https://hal.science/hal-04380405/document https://hal.science/hal-04380405/file/tc-17-4691-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-04380405 The Cryosphere, 2023, 17 (11), pp.4691-4704. ⟨10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 hal-04380405 https://hal.science/hal-04380405 https://hal.science/hal-04380405/document https://hal.science/hal-04380405/file/tc-17-4691-2023.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
4691 |
op_container_end_page |
4704 |
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