The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry
International audience Abstract. Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have bee...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04297044 https://hal.science/hal-04297044/document https://hal.science/hal-04297044/file/tc-17-3739-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-04297044v1 2024-04-28T07:57:53+00:00 The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry Hill, Emily Urruty, Benoît Reese, Ronja Garbe, Julius Gagliardini, Olivier Durand, Gaël Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda Chekki, Mondher Chandler, David Langebroek, Petra University of Northumbria at Newcastle United Kingdom Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2023-09-07 https://hal.science/hal-04297044 https://hal.science/hal-04297044/document https://hal.science/hal-04297044/file/tc-17-3739-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 hal-04297044 https://hal.science/hal-04297044 https://hal.science/hal-04297044/document https://hal.science/hal-04297044/file/tc-17-3739-2023.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-04297044 The Cryosphere, 2023, 17 (9), pp.3739-3759. ⟨10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 2024-04-05T00:27:42Z International audience Abstract. Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU The Cryosphere 17 9 3739 3759 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Hill, Emily Urruty, Benoît Reese, Ronja Garbe, Julius Gagliardini, Olivier Durand, Gaël Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda Chekki, Mondher Chandler, David Langebroek, Petra The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Abstract. Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica. |
author2 |
University of Northumbria at Newcastle United Kingdom Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hill, Emily Urruty, Benoît Reese, Ronja Garbe, Julius Gagliardini, Olivier Durand, Gaël Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda Chekki, Mondher Chandler, David Langebroek, Petra |
author_facet |
Hill, Emily Urruty, Benoît Reese, Ronja Garbe, Julius Gagliardini, Olivier Durand, Gaël Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien Gudmundsson, G. Hilmar Winkelmann, Ricarda Chekki, Mondher Chandler, David Langebroek, Petra |
author_sort |
Hill, Emily |
title |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_short |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_full |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_fullStr |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_full_unstemmed |
The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
title_sort |
stability of present-day antarctic grounding lines – part 1: no indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04297044 https://hal.science/hal-04297044/document https://hal.science/hal-04297044/file/tc-17-3739-2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.science/hal-04297044 The Cryosphere, 2023, 17 (9), pp.3739-3759. ⟨10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 hal-04297044 https://hal.science/hal-04297044 https://hal.science/hal-04297044/document https://hal.science/hal-04297044/file/tc-17-3739-2023.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
3739 |
op_container_end_page |
3759 |
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1797590812033286144 |