Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project
International audience Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi...
Published in: | Geoscientific Model Development |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04291950 https://hal.science/hal-04291950/document https://hal.science/hal-04291950/file/Jackson_GMD_2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-04291950v1 2023-12-17T10:46:27+01:00 Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project Jackson, Laura, C Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo Bellomo, Katinka Danabasoglu, Gokhan Haak, Helmuth Hu, Aixue Jungclaus, Johann Lee, Warren Meccia, Virna, L Saenko, Oleg Shao, Andrew Swingedouw, Didier Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2023-04-06 https://hal.science/hal-04291950 https://hal.science/hal-04291950/document https://hal.science/hal-04291950/file/Jackson_GMD_2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 hal-04291950 https://hal.science/hal-04291950 https://hal.science/hal-04291950/document https://hal.science/hal-04291950/file/Jackson_GMD_2023.pdf doi:10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1991-9603 EISSN: 1991-959X Geoscientific Model Development https://hal.science/hal-04291950 Geoscientific Model Development, 2023, 16 (7), pp.1975-1995. ⟨10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 2023-11-22T17:25:35Z International audience Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi-irreversibility (hysteresis). Although hysteresis has been seen in simple models, it has been difficult to demonstrate in comprehensive global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC hysteresis and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP). These experiments include adding additional freshwater (hosing) for a fixed length of time to examine the rate and mechanisms of AMOC weakening and whether the AMOC subsequently recovers once hosing stops. Initial results are shown from eight climate models participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The AMOC weakens in all models as a result of the freshening, but once the freshening ceases, the AMOC recovers in half of the models, and in the other half it stays in a weakened state. The difference in model behaviour cannot be explained by the ocean model resolution or type nor by details of subgrid-scale parameterisations. Likewise, it cannot be explained by previously proposed properties of the mean climate state such as the strength of the salinity advection feedback. Instead, the AMOC recovery is determined by the climate state reached when hosing stops, with those experiments where the AMOC is weakest not experiencing a recovery. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Geoscientific Model Development 16 7 1975 1995 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences Jackson, Laura, C Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo Bellomo, Katinka Danabasoglu, Gokhan Haak, Helmuth Hu, Aixue Jungclaus, Johann Lee, Warren Meccia, Virna, L Saenko, Oleg Shao, Andrew Swingedouw, Didier Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi-irreversibility (hysteresis). Although hysteresis has been seen in simple models, it has been difficult to demonstrate in comprehensive global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC hysteresis and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP). These experiments include adding additional freshwater (hosing) for a fixed length of time to examine the rate and mechanisms of AMOC weakening and whether the AMOC subsequently recovers once hosing stops. Initial results are shown from eight climate models participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The AMOC weakens in all models as a result of the freshening, but once the freshening ceases, the AMOC recovers in half of the models, and in the other half it stays in a weakened state. The difference in model behaviour cannot be explained by the ocean model resolution or type nor by details of subgrid-scale parameterisations. Likewise, it cannot be explained by previously proposed properties of the mean climate state such as the strength of the salinity advection feedback. Instead, the AMOC recovery is determined by the climate state reached when hosing stops, with those experiments where the AMOC is weakest not experiencing a recovery. |
author2 |
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jackson, Laura, C Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo Bellomo, Katinka Danabasoglu, Gokhan Haak, Helmuth Hu, Aixue Jungclaus, Johann Lee, Warren Meccia, Virna, L Saenko, Oleg Shao, Andrew Swingedouw, Didier |
author_facet |
Jackson, Laura, C Alastrué de Asenjo, Eduardo Bellomo, Katinka Danabasoglu, Gokhan Haak, Helmuth Hu, Aixue Jungclaus, Johann Lee, Warren Meccia, Virna, L Saenko, Oleg Shao, Andrew Swingedouw, Didier |
author_sort |
Jackson, Laura, C |
title |
Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project |
title_short |
Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project |
title_full |
Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project |
title_fullStr |
Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project |
title_full_unstemmed |
Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project |
title_sort |
understanding amoc stability: the north atlantic hosing model intercomparison project |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04291950 https://hal.science/hal-04291950/document https://hal.science/hal-04291950/file/Jackson_GMD_2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1991-9603 EISSN: 1991-959X Geoscientific Model Development https://hal.science/hal-04291950 Geoscientific Model Development, 2023, 16 (7), pp.1975-1995. ⟨10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 hal-04291950 https://hal.science/hal-04291950 https://hal.science/hal-04291950/document https://hal.science/hal-04291950/file/Jackson_GMD_2023.pdf doi:10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-1975-2023 |
container_title |
Geoscientific Model Development |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1975 |
op_container_end_page |
1995 |
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1785569934734000128 |