Modeling the Arctic Freshwater System and its integration in the global system: Lessons learned and future challenges

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
• Main Authors: Lique, Camille, Holland, Marika M., Dibike, Yonas B., Lawrence, David M., Screen, James A.
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-04200781; https://hal.science/hal-04200781/document; https://hal.science/hal-04200781/file/JGR%20Biogeosciences%20-%202015%20-%20Lique%20-%20Modeling%20the%20Arctic%20freshwater%20system%20and%20its%20integration%20in%20the%20global%20system%20Lessons.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JG003120

International audience Numerous components of the Arctic freshwater system (atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, terrestrial hydrology) have experienced large changes over the past few decades, and these changes are projected to amplify further in the future. Observations are particularly sparse, both in time and space, in the Polar Regions. Hence, modeling systems have been widely used and are a powerful tool to gain understanding on the functioning of the Arctic freshwater system and its integration within the global Earth system and climate. Here, we present a review of modeling studies addressing some aspect of the Arctic freshwater system. Through illustrative examples, we point out the value of using a hierarchy of models with increasing complexity and component interactions, in order to dismantle the important processes at play for the variability and changes of the different components of the Arctic freshwater system and the interplay between them. We discuss past and projected changes for the Arctic freshwater system and explore the sources of uncertainty associated with these model results. We further elaborate on some missing processes that should be included in future generations of Earth system models and highlight the importance of better quantification and understanding of natural variability, amongst other factors, for improved predictions of Arctic freshwater system change.