Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model
International audience Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI),...
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Language: | English |
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2010
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04113835 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 |
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institution |
Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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language |
English |
topic |
Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Servonnat, J. Yiou, P. Khodri, M. Swingedouw, D. Denvil, S. Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model |
topic_facet |
Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO 2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO 2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ~80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000-1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ~5.10 6 km 2 , i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65° N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent study on an Arctic temperature reconstruction over past two millennia. The forced variability represents at least half of the temperature signal on only ~30% of the surface of the globe. This study suggests that regional reconstructions of the temperature between 1000 and 1850 AD are likely to show weak signatures of solar, CO 2 and orbital forcings compared to internal variability. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Servonnat, J. Yiou, P. Khodri, M. Swingedouw, D. Denvil, S. |
author_facet |
Servonnat, J. Yiou, P. Khodri, M. Swingedouw, D. Denvil, S. |
author_sort |
Servonnat, J. |
title |
Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model |
title_short |
Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model |
title_full |
Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model |
title_fullStr |
Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model |
title_sort |
influence of solar variability, co 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 ad in the ipslcm4 model |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04113835 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-04113835 Climate of the Past, 2010, 6, pp.445-460. ⟨10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 hal-04113835 https://hal.science/hal-04113835 BIBCODE: 2010CliPa.6.445S doi:10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 |
_version_ |
1769004413910777856 |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-04113835v1 2023-06-18T03:39:42+02:00 Influence of solar variability, CO 2 and orbital forcing between 1000 and 1850 AD in the IPSLCM4 model Servonnat, J. Yiou, P. Khodri, M. Swingedouw, D. Denvil, S. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2010 https://hal.science/hal-04113835 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 en eng HAL CCSD info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 hal-04113835 https://hal.science/hal-04113835 BIBCODE: 2010CliPa.6.445S doi:10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-04113835 Climate of the Past, 2010, 6, pp.445-460. ⟨10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010⟩ Earth Science [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2010 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-445-201010.5194/cpd-6-421-2010 2023-06-05T19:26:06Z International audience Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO 2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO 2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ~80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000-1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ~5.10 6 km 2 , i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65° N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent study on an Arctic temperature reconstruction over past two millennia. The forced variability represents at least half of the temperature signal on only ~30% of the surface of the globe. This study suggests that regional reconstructions of the temperature between 1000 and 1850 AD are likely to show weak signatures of solar, CO 2 and orbital forcings compared to internal variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Arctic |