Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes
International audience Abstract. The modulation of the winter impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated in the IPSL-CM6A-LR ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Ensembles of simulations are performed with constrained sea-ice concentration followin...
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-03821823v1 2023-11-05T03:31:37+01:00 Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes Le Treut, Hervé Gastineau, Guillaume Li, Laurent Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) 2008-09 https://hal.science/hal-03821823 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 en eng HAL CCSD Académie des sciences (Paris) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 hal-03821823 https://hal.science/hal-03821823 doi:10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 ISSN: 1631-0713 EISSN: 1778-7025 Comptes Rendus. Géoscience https://hal.science/hal-03821823 Comptes Rendus. Géoscience, 2008, 340 (9-10), pp.584-590. ⟨10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2008 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 2023-10-11T16:26:44Z International audience Abstract. The modulation of the winter impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated in the IPSL-CM6A-LR ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Ensembles of simulations are performed with constrained sea-ice concentration following the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) and initial conditions sampling warm and cold phases of the PDO. Using a general linear model, we estimate the simulated winter impact of sea-ice loss, PDO and their combined effects. On the one hand, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern appears in response to sea-ice loss together with a modest deepening of the Aleutian Low. On the other hand, a warm PDO phase induces a large positive Pacific–North America pattern, as well as a small negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. Both sea-ice loss and warm PDO responses are associated with a weakening of the poleward flank of the eddy-driven jet, an intensification of the subtropical jet and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. These effects are partly additive; the warm PDO phase therefore enhances the response to sea-ice loss, while the cold PDO phase reduces it. However, the effects of PDO and sea-ice loss are also partly non-additive, with the interaction between both signals being slightly destructive. This results in small damping of the PDO teleconnections under sea-ice loss conditions, especially in the stratosphere. The sea-ice loss responses are compared to those obtained with the same model in atmosphere-only simulations, where sea-ice loss does not significantly alter the stratospheric polar vortex. Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Comptes Rendus Geoscience 340 9-10 584 590 |
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Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences Le Treut, Hervé Gastineau, Guillaume Li, Laurent Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Abstract. The modulation of the winter impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is investigated in the IPSL-CM6A-LR ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Ensembles of simulations are performed with constrained sea-ice concentration following the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) and initial conditions sampling warm and cold phases of the PDO. Using a general linear model, we estimate the simulated winter impact of sea-ice loss, PDO and their combined effects. On the one hand, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern appears in response to sea-ice loss together with a modest deepening of the Aleutian Low. On the other hand, a warm PDO phase induces a large positive Pacific–North America pattern, as well as a small negative Arctic Oscillation pattern. Both sea-ice loss and warm PDO responses are associated with a weakening of the poleward flank of the eddy-driven jet, an intensification of the subtropical jet and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. These effects are partly additive; the warm PDO phase therefore enhances the response to sea-ice loss, while the cold PDO phase reduces it. However, the effects of PDO and sea-ice loss are also partly non-additive, with the interaction between both signals being slightly destructive. This results in small damping of the PDO teleconnections under sea-ice loss conditions, especially in the stratosphere. The sea-ice loss responses are compared to those obtained with the same model in atmosphere-only simulations, where sea-ice loss does not significantly alter the stratospheric polar vortex. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Le Treut, Hervé Gastineau, Guillaume Li, Laurent |
author_facet |
Le Treut, Hervé Gastineau, Guillaume Li, Laurent |
author_sort |
Le Treut, Hervé |
title |
Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes |
title_short |
Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes |
title_full |
Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes |
title_sort |
uncertainties attached to global or local climate changes |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03821823 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 |
genre |
aleutian low Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1631-0713 EISSN: 1778-7025 Comptes Rendus. Géoscience https://hal.science/hal-03821823 Comptes Rendus. Géoscience, 2008, 340 (9-10), pp.584-590. ⟨10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 hal-03821823 https://hal.science/hal-03821823 doi:10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2008.06.003 |
container_title |
Comptes Rendus Geoscience |
container_volume |
340 |
container_issue |
9-10 |
container_start_page |
584 |
op_container_end_page |
590 |
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1781691083147706368 |