Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat
International audience The retreat of Arctic sea ice is frequently considered to be a possible driver of changes in climate extremes in the Arctic and possibly down to mid-latitudes. However, it remains unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a near-total retreat of summer Arctic sea ice, a reali...
Published in: | Weather and Climate Dynamics |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03739499 https://hal.science/hal-03739499/document https://hal.science/hal-03739499/file/Delhaye_WeatherClim_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-03739499v1 2023-06-18T03:38:46+02:00 Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat Delhaye, Steve Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François Docquier, David Msadek, Rym Chripko, Svenya Roberts, Christopher Keeley, Sarah Senan, Retish Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes Toulouse (CECI) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 2022 https://hal.science/hal-03739499 https://hal.science/hal-03739499/document https://hal.science/hal-03739499/file/Delhaye_WeatherClim_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 hal-03739499 https://hal.science/hal-03739499 https://hal.science/hal-03739499/document https://hal.science/hal-03739499/file/Delhaye_WeatherClim_2022.pdf doi:10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2698-4016 Weather and Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-03739499 Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, 3 (2), pp.555-573. ⟨10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022⟩ [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 2023-06-05T20:17:58Z International audience The retreat of Arctic sea ice is frequently considered to be a possible driver of changes in climate extremes in the Arctic and possibly down to mid-latitudes. However, it remains unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a near-total retreat of summer Arctic sea ice, a reality that might occur in the foreseeable future. This study explores this question by conducting sensitivity experiments with two global coupled climate models run at two different horizontal resolutions to investigate the change in temperature and precipitation extremes during summer over peripheral Arctic regions following a sudden reduction in summer Arctic sea ice cover. An increase in frequency and persistence of maximum surface air temperature is found in all peripheral Arctic regions during the summer, when sea ice loss occurs. For each 1×106 km2 of Arctic sea ice extent reduction, the absolute frequency of days exceeding the surface air temperature of the climatological 90th percentile increases by ∼ 4 % over the Svalbard area, and the duration of warm spells increases by ∼ 1 d per month over the same region. Furthermore, we find that the 10th percentile of surface daily air temperature increases more than the 90th percentile, leading to a weakened diurnal cycle of surface air temperature. Finally, an increase in extreme precipitation, which is less robust than the increase in extreme temperatures, is found in all regions in summer. These findings suggest that a sudden retreat of summer Arctic sea ice clearly impacts the extremes in maximum surface air temperature and precipitation over the peripheral Arctic regions with the largest influence over inhabited islands such as Svalbard or northern Canada. Nonetheless, even with a large sea ice reduction in regions close to the North Pole, the local precipitation response is relatively small compared to internal climate variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Pole Sea ice Svalbard Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Arctic Canada North Pole Svalbard Weather and Climate Dynamics 3 2 555 573 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Delhaye, Steve Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François Docquier, David Msadek, Rym Chripko, Svenya Roberts, Christopher Keeley, Sarah Senan, Retish Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience The retreat of Arctic sea ice is frequently considered to be a possible driver of changes in climate extremes in the Arctic and possibly down to mid-latitudes. However, it remains unclear how the atmosphere will respond to a near-total retreat of summer Arctic sea ice, a reality that might occur in the foreseeable future. This study explores this question by conducting sensitivity experiments with two global coupled climate models run at two different horizontal resolutions to investigate the change in temperature and precipitation extremes during summer over peripheral Arctic regions following a sudden reduction in summer Arctic sea ice cover. An increase in frequency and persistence of maximum surface air temperature is found in all peripheral Arctic regions during the summer, when sea ice loss occurs. For each 1×106 km2 of Arctic sea ice extent reduction, the absolute frequency of days exceeding the surface air temperature of the climatological 90th percentile increases by ∼ 4 % over the Svalbard area, and the duration of warm spells increases by ∼ 1 d per month over the same region. Furthermore, we find that the 10th percentile of surface daily air temperature increases more than the 90th percentile, leading to a weakened diurnal cycle of surface air temperature. Finally, an increase in extreme precipitation, which is less robust than the increase in extreme temperatures, is found in all regions in summer. These findings suggest that a sudden retreat of summer Arctic sea ice clearly impacts the extremes in maximum surface air temperature and precipitation over the peripheral Arctic regions with the largest influence over inhabited islands such as Svalbard or northern Canada. Nonetheless, even with a large sea ice reduction in regions close to the North Pole, the local precipitation response is relatively small compared to internal climate variability. |
author2 |
Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes Toulouse (CECI) Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Delhaye, Steve Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François Docquier, David Msadek, Rym Chripko, Svenya Roberts, Christopher Keeley, Sarah Senan, Retish |
author_facet |
Delhaye, Steve Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François Docquier, David Msadek, Rym Chripko, Svenya Roberts, Christopher Keeley, Sarah Senan, Retish |
author_sort |
Delhaye, Steve |
title |
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat |
title_short |
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat |
title_full |
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat |
title_fullStr |
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat |
title_full_unstemmed |
Summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral Arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat |
title_sort |
summertime changes in climate extremes over the peripheral arctic regions after a sudden sea ice retreat |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03739499 https://hal.science/hal-03739499/document https://hal.science/hal-03739499/file/Delhaye_WeatherClim_2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada North Pole Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada North Pole Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic North Pole Sea ice Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Pole Sea ice Svalbard |
op_source |
ISSN: 2698-4016 Weather and Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-03739499 Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, 3 (2), pp.555-573. ⟨10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 hal-03739499 https://hal.science/hal-03739499 https://hal.science/hal-03739499/document https://hal.science/hal-03739499/file/Delhaye_WeatherClim_2022.pdf doi:10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-555-2022 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
555 |
op_container_end_page |
573 |
_version_ |
1769003628523159552 |