Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas
International audience Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. T...
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-03704373v1 2023-05-15T15:02:54+02:00 Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas Magnan, Alexandre, Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya, Duvat, Virginie, Forbes, Donald, Ford, James, Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice, Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik, Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMR 7266 (LIENSs) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2022-12 https://hal.science/hal-03704373 https://hal.science/hal-03704373/document https://hal.science/hal-03704373/file/2022_Magnan_et_al_SLR%20risk_Adaptation%20benefits_Scientific_Reports.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w hal-03704373 https://hal.science/hal-03704373 https://hal.science/hal-03704373/document https://hal.science/hal-03704373/file/2022_Magnan_et_al_SLR%20risk_Adaptation%20benefits_Scientific_Reports.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.science/hal-03704373 Scientific Reports, 2022, 12 (1), pp.10677. ⟨10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w⟩ [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w 2023-02-15T18:07:48Z International audience Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Arctic Scientific Reports 12 1 |
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Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography Magnan, Alexandre, Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya, Duvat, Virginie, Forbes, Donald, Ford, James, Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice, Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik, Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
topic_facet |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography |
description |
International audience Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) will increase adaptation needs along low-lying coasts worldwide. Despite centuries of experience with coastal risk, knowledge about the effectiveness and feasibility of societal adaptation on the scale required in a warmer world remains limited. This paper contrasts end-century SLR risks under two warming and two adaptation scenarios, for four coastal settlement archetypes (Urban Atoll Islands, Arctic Communities, Large Tropical Agricultural Deltas, Resource-Rich Cities). We show that adaptation will be substantially beneficial to the continued habitability of most low-lying settlements over this century, at least until the RCP8.5 median SLR level is reached. However, diverse locations worldwide will experience adaptation limits over the course of this century, indicating situations where even ambitious adaptation cannot sufficiently offset a failure to effectively mitigate greenhouse-gas emissions. |
author2 |
LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés - UMR 7266 (LIENSs) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Magnan, Alexandre, Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya, Duvat, Virginie, Forbes, Donald, Ford, James, Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice, Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik, Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto |
author_facet |
Magnan, Alexandre, Oppenheimer, Michael Garschagen, Matthias Buchanan, Maya, Duvat, Virginie, Forbes, Donald, Ford, James, Lambert, Erwin Petzold, Jan Renaud, Fabrice, Sebesvari, Zita van de Wal, Roderik, Hinkel, Jochen Pörtner, Hans-Otto |
author_sort |
Magnan, Alexandre, |
title |
Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_short |
Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_full |
Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_fullStr |
Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
title_sort |
sea level rise risks and societal adaptation benefits in low-lying coastal areas |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03704373 https://hal.science/hal-03704373/document https://hal.science/hal-03704373/file/2022_Magnan_et_al_SLR%20risk_Adaptation%20benefits_Scientific_Reports.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://hal.science/hal-03704373 Scientific Reports, 2022, 12 (1), pp.10677. ⟨10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w hal-03704373 https://hal.science/hal-03704373 https://hal.science/hal-03704373/document https://hal.science/hal-03704373/file/2022_Magnan_et_al_SLR%20risk_Adaptation%20benefits_Scientific_Reports.pdf doi:10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-14303-w |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1766334816308953088 |