Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium
International audience Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the rece...
Published in: | Climate of the Past |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2015
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03263553 https://hal.science/hal-03263553/document https://hal.science/hal-03263553/file/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
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Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment 2k-Pmip3, Pages Bothe, O. Evans, M. Donado, L. Fernández Bustamante, E. Garcia Gergis, J. Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F. Hegerl, G. Hind, A. Jungclaus, J. Kaufman, D. Lehner, F. Mckay, N. Moberg, A. Raible, C. C. Schurer, A. Shi, F. Smerdon, J. E. Gunten, L. Von Wagner, S. Warren, E. Widmann, M. Yiou, Pascal Zorita, E. Goosse, H. Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
topic_facet |
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continentalscale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
2k-Pmip3, Pages Bothe, O. Evans, M. Donado, L. Fernández Bustamante, E. Garcia Gergis, J. Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F. Hegerl, G. Hind, A. Jungclaus, J. Kaufman, D. Lehner, F. Mckay, N. Moberg, A. Raible, C. C. Schurer, A. Shi, F. Smerdon, J. E. Gunten, L. Von Wagner, S. Warren, E. Widmann, M. Yiou, Pascal Zorita, E. Goosse, H. |
author_facet |
2k-Pmip3, Pages Bothe, O. Evans, M. Donado, L. Fernández Bustamante, E. Garcia Gergis, J. Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F. Hegerl, G. Hind, A. Jungclaus, J. Kaufman, D. Lehner, F. Mckay, N. Moberg, A. Raible, C. C. Schurer, A. Shi, F. Smerdon, J. E. Gunten, L. Von Wagner, S. Warren, E. Widmann, M. Yiou, Pascal Zorita, E. Goosse, H. |
author_sort |
2k-Pmip3, Pages |
title |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_short |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_full |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_fullStr |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_full_unstemmed |
Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
title_sort |
continental-scale temperature variability in pmip3 simulations and pages 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03263553 https://hal.science/hal-03263553/document https://hal.science/hal-03263553/file/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-03263553 Climate of the Past, 2015, 11 (12), pp.1673 - 1699. ⟨10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 hal-03263553 https://hal.science/hal-03263553 https://hal.science/hal-03263553/document https://hal.science/hal-03263553/file/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf doi:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
1673 |
op_container_end_page |
1699 |
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1797578970523238400 |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-03263553v1 2024-04-28T08:11:40+00:00 Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium 2k-Pmip3, Pages Bothe, O. Evans, M. Donado, L. Fernández Bustamante, E. Garcia Gergis, J. Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F. Hegerl, G. Hind, A. Jungclaus, J. Kaufman, D. Lehner, F. Mckay, N. Moberg, A. Raible, C. C. Schurer, A. Shi, F. Smerdon, J. E. Gunten, L. Von Wagner, S. Warren, E. Widmann, M. Yiou, Pascal Zorita, E. Goosse, H. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) 2015-12-16 https://hal.science/hal-03263553 https://hal.science/hal-03263553/document https://hal.science/hal-03263553/file/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union (EGU) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 hal-03263553 https://hal.science/hal-03263553 https://hal.science/hal-03263553/document https://hal.science/hal-03263553/file/cp-11-1673-2015.pdf doi:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1814-9324 EISSN: 1814-9332 Climate of the Past https://hal.science/hal-03263553 Climate of the Past, 2015, 11 (12), pp.1673 - 1699. ⟨10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015⟩ [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015 2024-04-05T00:37:03Z International audience Estimated external radiative forcings, model results, and proxy-based climate reconstructions have been used over the past several decades to improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying observed climate variability and change over the past millennium. Here, the recent set of temperature reconstructions at the continentalscale generated by the PAGES 2k project and a collection of state-of-the-art model simulations driven by realistic external forcings are jointly analysed. The first aim is to estimate the consistency between model results and reconstructions for each continental-scale region over the time and frequency domains. Secondly, the links between regions are investigated to determine whether reconstructed global-scale covariability patterns are similar to those identified in model simulations. The third aim is to assess the role of external forcings in the observed temperature variations. From a large set of analyses, we conclude that models are in relatively good agreement with temperature reconstructions for Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly in the Arctic. This is likely due to the relatively large amplitude of the externally forced response across northern and high-latitude regions, which results in a clearly detectable signature in both reconstructions and simulations. Conversely, models disagree strongly with the reconstructions in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, the simulations are more regionally coherent than the reconstructions, perhaps due to an underestimation of the magnitude of internal variability in models or to an overestimation of the response to the external forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. Part of the disagreement might also reflect large uncertainties in the reconstructions, specifically in some Southern Hemisphere regions, which are based on fewer palaeoclimate records than in the Northern Hemisphere. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Climate of the Past 11 12 1673 1699 |