Soil moisture and hydrology projections of the permafrost region – a model intercomparison

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: Andresen, Christian, Lawrence, David, Wilson, Cathy, Mcguire, A. David, Koven, Charles, Schaefer, Kevin, Jafarov, Elchin, Peng, Shushi, Chen, Xiaodong, Gouttevin, Isabelle, Burke, Eleanor, Chadburn, Sarah, Ji, Duoying, Chen, Guangsheng, Hayes, Daniel, Zhang, Wenxin
• Other Authors: Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Earth and Environmental Sciences Division Los Alamos, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF), Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley (LBNL), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder (INSTAAR), University of Colorado Boulder, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Beijing, Peking University Beijing, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Seattle, University of Washington Seattle, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes (RiverLy), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE), University of Leeds, College of Global Change and Earth System Science (GCESS), Beijing Normal University (BNU), Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund, Skane University Hospital Lund, Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management Copenhagen (IGN), Faculty of Science Copenhagen, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-Faculty of Science Copenhagen, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), United States Department of Energy (DOE) : ERKP757
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: Ice-wedge Degradation; Land-surface Model; Thermal Dynamics; Polygonal Tundra; Frozen Soil; Carbon; Water; Co2; Fluxes; System; [SHS.GEO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Geography; Ice; permafrost; The Cryosphere; Tundra; wedge*
• Online Access: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03259447; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03259447/document; https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03259447/file/tc-14-445-2020.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-445-2020

International audience This study investigates and compares soil moisture and hydrology projections of broadly used land models with permafrost processes and highlights the causes and impacts of permafrost zone soil moisture projections. Climate models project warmer temperatures and increases in precipitation (P) which will intensify evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff in land models. However, this study shows that most models project a long-term drying of the surface soil (0-20 cm) for the permafrost region despite increases in the net air-surface water flux (P-ET). Drying is generally explained by infiltration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or permafrost thaws completely. Although most models agree on drying, the projections vary strongly in magnitude and spatial pattern. Land models tend to agree with decadal runoff trends but underestimate runoff volume when compared to gauge data across the major Arctic river basins, potentially indicating model structural limitations. Coordinated efforts to address the ongoing challenges presented in this study will help reduce uncertainty in our capability to predict the future Arctic hydrological state and associated land-atmosphere biogeochemical processes across spatial and temporal scales.