Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions
International audience The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversib...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03199260 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-03199260v1 2024-04-28T08:25:02+00:00 Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions Solomon, Susan Plattner, Gian-Kasper Knutti, Reto Friedlingstein, Pierre NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics ETH Zürich (IBP) Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich (D-USYS) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) 2009-02-10 https://hal.science/hal-03199260 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 en eng HAL CCSD National Academy of Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 hal-03199260 https://hal.science/hal-03199260 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC2632717 ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-03199260 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009, 106 (6), pp.1704-1709. ⟨10.1073/pnas.0812721106⟩ dangerous interference precipitation sea level rise warming [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2009 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 2024-04-05T00:37:31Z International audience The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450 – 600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4 –1.0 m if 21st century CO$_2$ concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6 –1.9 m for peak CO$_2$ concentrations exceeding ~1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciersand ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 6 1704 1709 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
dangerous interference precipitation sea level rise warming [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
dangerous interference precipitation sea level rise warming [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Solomon, Susan Plattner, Gian-Kasper Knutti, Reto Friedlingstein, Pierre Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions |
topic_facet |
dangerous interference precipitation sea level rise warming [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450 – 600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4 –1.0 m if 21st century CO$_2$ concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6 –1.9 m for peak CO$_2$ concentrations exceeding ~1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciersand ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer. |
author2 |
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics ETH Zürich (IBP) Department of Environmental Systems Science ETH Zürich (D-USYS) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Solomon, Susan Plattner, Gian-Kasper Knutti, Reto Friedlingstein, Pierre |
author_facet |
Solomon, Susan Plattner, Gian-Kasper Knutti, Reto Friedlingstein, Pierre |
author_sort |
Solomon, Susan |
title |
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_short |
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_full |
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_fullStr |
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions |
title_sort |
irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03199260 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-03199260 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009, 106 (6), pp.1704-1709. ⟨10.1073/pnas.0812721106⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 hal-03199260 https://hal.science/hal-03199260 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812721106 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC2632717 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812721106 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
106 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1704 |
op_container_end_page |
1709 |
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1797584992825507840 |