Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies
International audience To date glacial and periglacial landforms, lichenometry is a valuable method but, to improve efficiency, the estimated surface dates derived from traditional methods need to be more accurate. In other words, the statistical uncertainty associated with inferred dates has to be...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Other Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2007
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03191580 https://hal.science/hal-03191580/document https://hal.science/hal-03191580/file/1523-0430_2007_39_277_MUILS_2.0.CO_2.pdf https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 |
id |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-03191580v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-03191580v1 2024-04-28T08:03:24+00:00 Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies Naveau, Philippe Jomelli, Vincent Cooley, Daniel Delphine, Grancher Rabatel, Antoine Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) 2007 https://hal.science/hal-03191580 https://hal.science/hal-03191580/document https://hal.science/hal-03191580/file/1523-0430_2007_39_277_MUILS_2.0.CO_2.pdf https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 en eng HAL CCSD University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 hal-03191580 https://hal.science/hal-03191580 https://hal.science/hal-03191580/document https://hal.science/hal-03191580/file/1523-0430_2007_39_277_MUILS_2.0.CO_2.pdf doi:10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1523-0430 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research https://hal.science/hal-03191580 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2007, 39 (2), pp.277-285. ⟨10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2⟩ [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 2024-04-05T00:37:31Z International audience To date glacial and periglacial landforms, lichenometry is a valuable method but, to improve efficiency, the estimated surface dates derived from traditional methods need to be more accurate. In other words, the statistical uncertainty associated with inferred dates has to be reduced. How to perform such a reduction is the main question that we will address in this paper. An interdisciplinary approach (lichenometry and statistics) allows reduction in the main sources of uncertainty: lichen diameters and their associated ages. Around 2600 lichen measurements collected on moraines from the Charquini glacier in Bolivia (Cordillera Real) are used to illustrate the advantages of our approach over past studies.As for any statistical estimation procedure, the error analysis in lichenometry is directly linked to the type of observations and the statistical model used to represent accurately these data. The attribute of lichenometry studies is that the measurements are not averages but maxima; only the largest lichen diameters provide information about the surface ages. To take this characteristic into account, we propose a novel statistical way to model maximum lichen diameters. Our model, based on the extreme value theory, allows us to compute small confidence intervals for the inferred surface ages. In addition, it offers three other advantages: (1) a global statistical model, as all our data (dated surfaces and all lichen maximum diameters) are represented with a unique function; (2) a mathematical framework within which the maximum lichen distribution is derived from a statistical theory; and (3) flexibility, as different types of growing curves can be investigated. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Naveau, Philippe Jomelli, Vincent Cooley, Daniel Delphine, Grancher Rabatel, Antoine Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience To date glacial and periglacial landforms, lichenometry is a valuable method but, to improve efficiency, the estimated surface dates derived from traditional methods need to be more accurate. In other words, the statistical uncertainty associated with inferred dates has to be reduced. How to perform such a reduction is the main question that we will address in this paper. An interdisciplinary approach (lichenometry and statistics) allows reduction in the main sources of uncertainty: lichen diameters and their associated ages. Around 2600 lichen measurements collected on moraines from the Charquini glacier in Bolivia (Cordillera Real) are used to illustrate the advantages of our approach over past studies.As for any statistical estimation procedure, the error analysis in lichenometry is directly linked to the type of observations and the statistical model used to represent accurately these data. The attribute of lichenometry studies is that the measurements are not averages but maxima; only the largest lichen diameters provide information about the surface ages. To take this characteristic into account, we propose a novel statistical way to model maximum lichen diameters. Our model, based on the extreme value theory, allows us to compute small confidence intervals for the inferred surface ages. In addition, it offers three other advantages: (1) a global statistical model, as all our data (dated surfaces and all lichen maximum diameters) are represented with a unique function; (2) a mathematical framework within which the maximum lichen distribution is derived from a statistical theory; and (3) flexibility, as different types of growing curves can be investigated. |
author2 |
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Naveau, Philippe Jomelli, Vincent Cooley, Daniel Delphine, Grancher Rabatel, Antoine |
author_facet |
Naveau, Philippe Jomelli, Vincent Cooley, Daniel Delphine, Grancher Rabatel, Antoine |
author_sort |
Naveau, Philippe |
title |
Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies |
title_short |
Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies |
title_full |
Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies |
title_fullStr |
Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling Uncertainties in Lichenometry Studies |
title_sort |
modeling uncertainties in lichenometry studies |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03191580 https://hal.science/hal-03191580/document https://hal.science/hal-03191580/file/1523-0430_2007_39_277_MUILS_2.0.CO_2.pdf https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 |
genre |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic |
genre_facet |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1523-0430 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research https://hal.science/hal-03191580 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 2007, 39 (2), pp.277-285. ⟨10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 hal-03191580 https://hal.science/hal-03191580 https://hal.science/hal-03191580/document https://hal.science/hal-03191580/file/1523-0430_2007_39_277_MUILS_2.0.CO_2.pdf doi:10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2007)39[277:MUILS]2.0.CO;2 |
_version_ |
1797574534702825472 |