Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

• Published in: Journal of Climate
• Main Authors: Liu, Yongwen, Piao, Shilong, Lian, Xu, Ciais, Philippe, Smith, William Kolby
• Other Authors: Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University Beijing, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), University of Arizona, This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41530528 and 41561134016), the 111 Project, and the National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China. P.C. acknowledges support from the European Research Council Synergy Grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P.
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: Land surface; Vegetation; Coupled models; Model evaluation/performance; Interannual variability; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; Subarctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02904039; https://hal.science/hal-02904039/document; https://hal.science/hal-02904039/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Seasonal%20Responses%20of%20Terrestrial%20Carbon%20Cycle%20to%20Climate%20Variations%20in%20CMIP5%20Models%20Evaluation%20and%20Projection.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0555.1

International audience Seventeen Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated, focusing on the seasonal sensitivities of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation during 1982–2005 and their changes over the twenty-first century. Temperature sensitivity of NPP in ESMs was generally consistent across northern high-latitude biomes but significantly more negative for tropical and subtropical biomes relative to satellite-derived estimates. The temperature sensitivity of NBP in both inversion-based and ESM estimates was generally consistent in March–May (MAM) and September–November (SON) for tropical forests, semiarid ecosystems, and boreal forests. By contrast, for inversion-based NBP estimates, temperature sensitivity of NBP was nonsignificant for June–August (JJA) for all biomes except boreal forest; whereas, for ESM NBP estimates, the temperature sensitivity for JJA was significantly negative for all biomes except shrublands and subarctic ecosystems. Both satellite-derived NPP and inversion-based NBP are often decoupled from precipitation, whereas ESM NPP and NBP estimates are generally positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting that ESMs are oversensitive to precipitation. Over the twenty-first century, changes in temperature sensitivities of NPP, Rh, and NBP are consistent across all RCPs but stronger under more intensive scenarios. The temperature sensitivity of NBP was found to decrease in tropics and subtropics and increase in northern high latitudes in MAM due to an increased temperature sensitivity of NPP. Across all biomes, projected temperature sensitivity of NPP decreased in JJA and SON. Projected precipitation sensitivity of NBP did not change across biomes, except over grasslands in MAM.