Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble
International audience We assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July–September target season m...
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-02879922v1 2023-06-18T03:41:53+02:00 Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble Giannini, Alessandra Ali, A. Kelley, C, Lamptey, B, Minoungou, B Ndiaye, O Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) Centre Régional AGRHYMET (CRA) Columbia University New York School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE) University of Leeds 2020-04-17 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/file/short-nmme-paper_hal%2BSI.pdf en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union hal-02879922 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/file/short-nmme-paper_hal%2BSI.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (9) [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftinsu 2023-06-05T22:56:28Z International audience We assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July–September target season made as early as February/March and as late as June. The two dominant influences on the climate of the Sahel, the North Atlantic and the global tropical oceans, shape this predictability. Multimodel ensemble skill hinges on the combination of skillful predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation made with one model (CMC2‐CanCM4) with those of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures made with another (NASA‐GEOSS2S). Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Giannini, Alessandra Ali, A. Kelley, C, Lamptey, B, Minoungou, B Ndiaye, O Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience We assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July–September target season made as early as February/March and as late as June. The two dominant influences on the climate of the Sahel, the North Atlantic and the global tropical oceans, shape this predictability. Multimodel ensemble skill hinges on the combination of skillful predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation made with one model (CMC2‐CanCM4) with those of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures made with another (NASA‐GEOSS2S). |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL) Centre Régional AGRHYMET (CRA) Columbia University New York School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE) University of Leeds |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Giannini, Alessandra Ali, A. Kelley, C, Lamptey, B, Minoungou, B Ndiaye, O |
author_facet |
Giannini, Alessandra Ali, A. Kelley, C, Lamptey, B, Minoungou, B Ndiaye, O |
author_sort |
Giannini, Alessandra |
title |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_short |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_full |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_sort |
advances in the lead time of sahel rainfall prediction with the north american multimodel ensemble |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/file/short-nmme-paper_hal%2BSI.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47 (9) |
op_relation |
hal-02879922 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02879922/file/short-nmme-paper_hal%2BSI.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1769007602149097472 |