Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps
[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [ADD1_IRSTEA]Hydrosystèmes et risques naturels International audience This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain ran...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2018
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Online Access: | https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/file/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 |
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Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
CHARTREUSE MASSIF [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
CHARTREUSE MASSIF [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Verfaillie, D. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Y. Morin, S. Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
topic_facet |
CHARTREUSE MASSIF [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
[Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [ADD1_IRSTEA]Hydrosystèmes et risques naturels International audience This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5-EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCM pairs spanning historical (1950-2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006-2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20% typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32% reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986-2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 degrees C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards. |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Verfaillie, D. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Y. Morin, S. |
author_facet |
Verfaillie, D. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Y. Morin, S. |
author_sort |
Verfaillie, D. |
title |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_short |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_full |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_fullStr |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps |
title_sort |
multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the chartreuse mountain range, northern french alps |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/file/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 |
genre |
The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972 The Cryosphere, 2018, 12 (4), pp.1249-1271. ⟨10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 hal-02608972 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/file/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 IRSTEA: PUB00060725 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1249 |
op_container_end_page |
1271 |
_version_ |
1796932800745570304 |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-02608972v1 2024-04-21T08:12:40+00:00 Multi-component ensembles of future meteorological and natural snow conditions for 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range, Northern French Alps Verfaillie, D. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, Michel Eckert, Nicolas Lejeune, Y. Morin, S. Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ) 2018 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/file/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 hal-02608972 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972/file/tc-12-1249-2018.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 IRSTEA: PUB00060725 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02608972 The Cryosphere, 2018, 12 (4), pp.1249-1271. ⟨10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018⟩ CHARTREUSE MASSIF [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1249-2018 2024-04-05T00:35:45Z [Departement_IRSTEA]Eaux [ADD1_IRSTEA]Hydrosystèmes et risques naturels International audience This article investigates the climatic response of a series of indicators for characterizing annual snow conditions and corresponding meteorological drivers at 1500m altitude in the Chartreuse mountain range in the Northern French Alps. Past and future changes were computed based on reanalysis and observations from 1958 to 2016, and using CMIP5-EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCM pairs spanning historical (1950-2005) and RCP2.6 (4), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (13 each) future scenarios (2006-2100). The adjusted climate model runs were used to drive the multiphysics ensemble configuration of the detailed snowpack model Crocus. Uncertainty arising from physical modeling of snow accounts for 20% typically, although the multiphysics is likely to have a much smaller impact on trends. Ensembles of climate projections are rather similar until the middle of the 21st century, and all show a continuation of the ongoing reduction in average snow conditions, and sustained interannual variability. The impact of the RCPs becomes significant for the second half of the 21st century, with overall stable conditions with RCP2.6, and continued degradation of snow conditions for RCP4.5 and 8.5, the latter leading to more frequent ephemeral snow conditions. Changes in local meteorological and snow conditions show significant correlation with global temperature changes. Global temperature levels 1.5 and 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels correspond to a 25 and 32% reduction, respectively, of winter mean snow depth with respect to the reference period 1986-2005. Larger reduction rates are expected for global temperature levels exceeding 2 degrees C. The method can address other geographical areas and sectorial indicators, in the field of water resources, mountain tourism or natural hazards. Article in Journal/Newspaper The Cryosphere Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU The Cryosphere 12 4 1249 1271 |