CMIP5 model selection for ISMIP6 ice sheet model forcing: Greenland and Antarctica

• Published in: The Cryosphere
• Main Authors: Barthel, Alice, Agosta, Cécile, Little, Christopher, Hattermann, Tore, Jourdain, Nicolas, Goelzer, Heiko, Nowicki, Sophie, Seroussi, Hélène, Straneo, Fiammetta, Bracegirdle, Thomas
• Other Authors: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. (AER), Norwegian Polar Institute, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU), Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University Utrecht, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California San Diego (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), ANR-15-CE01-0015,AC-AHC2,Circulation atmosphérique et changement de cycle hydrologique pour l'Arctique(2015), ANR-15-CE01-0005,TROIS-AS,Vers un système de modélisation régionale océan / calotte / atmosphère(2015)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces; environment; Greenland; Antarc*; Antarctica; Ice Sheet; The Cryosphere
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02524433; https://hal.science/hal-02524433/document; https://hal.science/hal-02524433/file/tc-14-855-2020.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-855-2020

International audience The ice sheet model intercomparison project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) effort brings together the ice sheet and climate modeling communities to gain understanding of the ice sheet contribution to sea level rise. ISMIP6 conducts stand-alone ice sheet experiments that use space-and time-varying forcing derived from atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) to reflect plausible trajectories for climate projections. The goal of this study is to recommend a subset of CMIP5 AOGCMs (three core and three targeted) to produce forcing for ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet simulations , based on (i) their representation of current climate near Antarctica and Greenland relative to observations and (ii) their ability to sample a diversity of projected atmosphere and ocean changes over the 21st century. The selection is performed separately for Greenland and Antarc-tica. Model evaluation over the historical period focuses on variables used to generate ice sheet forcing. For stage (i), we combine metrics of atmosphere and surface ocean state (annual-and seasonal-mean variables over large spatial domains) with metrics of time-mean subsurface ocean temperature biases averaged over sectors of the continental shelf. For stage (ii), we maximize the diversity of climate projections among the best-performing models. Model selection is also constrained by technical limitations, such as availability of required data from RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 projections. The selected top three CMIP5 climate models are CCSM4, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NorESM1-M for Antarctica and HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M for Greenland. This model selection was designed specifically for ISMIP6 but can be adapted for other applications.