Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues
International audience All climate models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) archive, predict a...
Published in: | Annals of Glaciology |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2008
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01871522 https://hal.science/hal-01871522/document https://hal.science/hal-01871522/file/Genthon%20annals%202009.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769681 |
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Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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English |
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[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Genthon, C. Krinner, G. Castebrunet, Hélène Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience All climate models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) archive, predict a significant surface warming of Antarctica by the end of the 21st century under a moderate (SRESA1B) greenhouse-gas scenario. All models but one predict a concurrent precipitation increase but with a large scatter of results. The models with finer horizontal resolution tend to predict a larger precipitation increase. Because modeled Antarctic surface mass balance is known to be sensitive to horizontal resolution, extrapolating predictions from the different models with respect to model resolution may provide simple yet better multi-model estimates of Antarctic precipitation change than mere averaging or even more complex approaches. Using such extrapolation, a conservative estimate of the predicted precipitation increase at the end of the 21st century is +30 kg m-2 a-1 on the grounded ice sheet, corresponding to a >1 mm a-1 sea-level rise. About three-quarters of this rise originates from the marginal regions of the Antarctic ice sheet with surface elevation below 2250 m. This is where field programs are most urgently needed to better understand and monitor accumulation at the surface of Antarctica, and to improve and verify prediction models. |
author2 |
Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire de Génie Civil et d'Ingénierie Environnementale (LGCIE) Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon) Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Genthon, C. Krinner, G. Castebrunet, Hélène |
author_facet |
Genthon, C. Krinner, G. Castebrunet, Hélène |
author_sort |
Genthon, C. |
title |
Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues |
title_short |
Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues |
title_full |
Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues |
title_fullStr |
Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues |
title_full_unstemmed |
Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues |
title_sort |
antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2008 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01871522 https://hal.science/hal-01871522/document https://hal.science/hal-01871522/file/Genthon%20annals%202009.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769681 |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_source |
ISSN: 0260-3055 EISSN: 1727-5644 Annals of Glaciology https://hal.science/hal-01871522 Annals of Glaciology, 2008, 50 (50), pp.55-60. ⟨10.3189/172756409787769681⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3189/172756409787769681 hal-01871522 https://hal.science/hal-01871522 https://hal.science/hal-01871522/document https://hal.science/hal-01871522/file/Genthon%20annals%202009.pdf doi:10.3189/172756409787769681 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769681 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
50 |
container_start_page |
55 |
op_container_end_page |
60 |
_version_ |
1797579806098849792 |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-01871522v1 2024-04-28T07:55:24+00:00 Antarctic precipitation and climate-change predictions: horizontal resolution and margin vs plateau issues Genthon, C. Krinner, G. Castebrunet, Hélène Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Laboratoire de Génie Civil et d'Ingénierie Environnementale (LGCIE) Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon) Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA) 2008 https://hal.science/hal-01871522 https://hal.science/hal-01871522/document https://hal.science/hal-01871522/file/Genthon%20annals%202009.pdf https://doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769681 en eng HAL CCSD Cambridge University Press info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.3189/172756409787769681 hal-01871522 https://hal.science/hal-01871522 https://hal.science/hal-01871522/document https://hal.science/hal-01871522/file/Genthon%20annals%202009.pdf doi:10.3189/172756409787769681 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0260-3055 EISSN: 1727-5644 Annals of Glaciology https://hal.science/hal-01871522 Annals of Glaciology, 2008, 50 (50), pp.55-60. ⟨10.3189/172756409787769681⟩ [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2008 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.3189/172756409787769681 2024-04-05T00:45:22Z International audience All climate models participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as made available by the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) archive, predict a significant surface warming of Antarctica by the end of the 21st century under a moderate (SRESA1B) greenhouse-gas scenario. All models but one predict a concurrent precipitation increase but with a large scatter of results. The models with finer horizontal resolution tend to predict a larger precipitation increase. Because modeled Antarctic surface mass balance is known to be sensitive to horizontal resolution, extrapolating predictions from the different models with respect to model resolution may provide simple yet better multi-model estimates of Antarctic precipitation change than mere averaging or even more complex approaches. Using such extrapolation, a conservative estimate of the predicted precipitation increase at the end of the 21st century is +30 kg m-2 a-1 on the grounded ice sheet, corresponding to a >1 mm a-1 sea-level rise. About three-quarters of this rise originates from the marginal regions of the Antarctic ice sheet with surface elevation below 2250 m. This is where field programs are most urgently needed to better understand and monitor accumulation at the surface of Antarctica, and to improve and verify prediction models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Annals of Glaciology 50 50 55 60 |