A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France)
International audience This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical...
Published in: | Ocean Dynamics |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01550540 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z |
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-01550540v1 2024-04-21T08:08:08+00:00 A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) Turki, Imen Laignel, Benoît, B. Kakeh, Nabil Chevalier, Laetitia Costa, Stéphane Morphodynamique Continentale et Côtière (M2C) Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN) Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Environmental Hydraulics Institute IH Cantabria Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Caen) Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 (LETG) Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN) Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN) 2015 https://hal.science/hal-01550540 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z hal-01550540 https://hal.science/hal-01550540 doi:10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z ISSN: 1616-7341 EISSN: 1616-7228 Ocean Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01550540 Ocean Dynamics, 2015, 65 (4), pp.509 - 521. ⟨10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z⟩ Sea level forecast Astronomical tides Nontidal residual surges ARMA Sea level pressure [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z 2024-04-05T00:47:10Z International audience This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7 cm for 1 to 30 days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80 %. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9 cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85 %. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Ocean Dynamics 65 4 509 521 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea level forecast Astronomical tides Nontidal residual surges ARMA Sea level pressure [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
Sea level forecast Astronomical tides Nontidal residual surges ARMA Sea level pressure [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Turki, Imen Laignel, Benoît, B. Kakeh, Nabil Chevalier, Laetitia Costa, Stéphane A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) |
topic_facet |
Sea level forecast Astronomical tides Nontidal residual surges ARMA Sea level pressure [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience This research is carried out in the framework of the program Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) which is a partnership between NASA and CNES. Here, a new hybrid model is implemented for filling gaps and forecasting the hourly sea level variability by combining classical harmonic analyses to high statistical methods to reproduce the deterministic and stochastic processes, respectively. After simulating the mean trend sea level and astronomical tides, the nontidal residual surges are investigated using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methods by two ways: (1) applying a purely statistical approach and (2) introducing the SLP in ARMA as a main physical process driving the residual sea level. The new hybrid model is applied to the western Atlantic sea and the eastern English Channel. Using ARMA model and considering the SLP, results show that the hourly sea level observations of gauges with are well reproduced with a root mean square error (RMSE) ranging between 4.5 and 7 cm for 1 to 30 days of gaps and an explained variance more than 80 %. For larger gaps of months, the RMSE reaches 9 cm. The negative and the positive extreme values of sea levels are also well reproduced with a mean explained variance between 70 and 85 %. The statistical behavior of 1-year modeled residual components shows good agreements with observations. The frequency analysis using the discrete wavelet transform illustrate strong correlations between observed and modeled energy spectrum and the bands of variability. Accordingly, the proposed model presents a coherent, simple, and easy tool to estimate the total sea level at timescales from days to months. The ARMA model seems to be more promising for filling gaps and estimating the sea level at larger scales of years by introducing more physical processes driving its stochastic variability. |
author2 |
Morphodynamique Continentale et Côtière (M2C) Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN) Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Environmental Hydraulics Institute IH Cantabria Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique (LETG - Caen) Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 (LETG) Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université d'Angers (UA)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes (IGARUN) Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN) Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Turki, Imen Laignel, Benoît, B. Kakeh, Nabil Chevalier, Laetitia Costa, Stéphane |
author_facet |
Turki, Imen Laignel, Benoît, B. Kakeh, Nabil Chevalier, Laetitia Costa, Stéphane |
author_sort |
Turki, Imen |
title |
A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) |
title_short |
A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) |
title_full |
A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) |
title_fullStr |
A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) |
title_full_unstemmed |
A new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern English Channel and the North Atlantic Sea (western France) |
title_sort |
new hybrid model for filling gaps and forecast in sea level: application to the eastern english channel and the north atlantic sea (western france) |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01550540 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 1616-7341 EISSN: 1616-7228 Ocean Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01550540 Ocean Dynamics, 2015, 65 (4), pp.509 - 521. ⟨10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z hal-01550540 https://hal.science/hal-01550540 doi:10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-015-0824-z |
container_title |
Ocean Dynamics |
container_volume |
65 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
509 |
op_container_end_page |
521 |
_version_ |
1796948350085365760 |