Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: a model intercomparison

• Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• Main Authors: Huneeus, N, Basart, S, Fiedler, S, Morcrette, J.-J, Benedetti, A, Mulcahy, J, Terradellas, E, Garcia-Pando, C. Pérez, Pejanovic, G., Nickovic, S., Arsenovic, P., Schulz, M, Cuevas, E., Baldasano, J. M., Pey, J., Remy, S., Cvetkovic, B.
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Universidad de Chile = University of Chile Santiago (UCHILE), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), University of Leeds, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMet), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Columbia University New York, National hydrometeorological service Belgrade, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich), Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET), Izaña Atmospheric Research Center (IARC), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya Barcelona (UPC), Geological Survey of Spain (IGME), Geological Survey of Spain
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2016
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; Huneeus; Aerosol Robotic Network
• Online Access: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01339003; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01339003/document; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01339003/file/acp-16-4967-2016.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016

International audience In the framework of the World Meteorological Or-ganisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saha-ran dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average , differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis sug-Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 4968 N. Huneeus et al.: Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak gests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.