Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the GeoMIP G1 scenario

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
• Main Authors: Moore, John C., Rinke, Annette, Yu, Xiaoyong, Ji, Duoying, Cui, Xuefeng, Li, Yan, Alterskjaer, Kari, Kristjánsson, Jón Egill, Muri, Helene, Boucher, Olivier, Huneeus, Nicolas, Kravitz, Ben, Robock, Alan, Niemeier, Ulrike, Schulz, Michael, Tilmes, Simone, Watanabe, Shingo, Yang, Shuting
• Other Authors: State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI), Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou, Lanzhou University, Department of Geosciences Oslo, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Oslo, University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Department of Environmental Sciences New Brunswick, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences New Brunswick, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey New Brunswick (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey New Brunswick (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers University System (Rutgers), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2014
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; Arctic; Barents Sea; Greenland; Pacific; Chukchi; Greenland Sea; laptev; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://polytechnique.hal.science/hal-01082616; https://polytechnique.hal.science/hal-01082616/document; https://polytechnique.hal.science/hal-01082616/file/2013JD021060.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021060

International audience We analyze simulated sea ice changes in eight different Earth System Models that have conducted experiment G1 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The simulated response of balancing abrupt quadrupling of CO2 (abrupt4xCO2) with reduced shortwave radiation successfully moderates annually averaged Arctic temperature rise to about 1°C, with modest changes in seasonal sea ice cycle compared with the preindustrial control simulations (piControl). Changes in summer and autumn sea ice extent are spatially correlated with temperature patterns but much less in winter and spring seasons. However, there are changes of ±20% in sea ice concentration in all seasons, and these will induce changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. In summer and autumn, the models consistently simulate less sea ice relative to preindustrial simulations in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas, and some models show increased sea ice in the Barents/Kara Seas region. Sea ice extent increases in the Greenland Sea, particularly in winter and spring and is to some extent associated with changed sea ice drift. Decreased sea ice cover in winter and spring in the Barents Sea is associated with increased cyclonic activity entering this area under G1. In comparison, the abrupt4xCO2 experiment shows almost total sea ice loss in September and strong correlation with regional temperatures in all seasons consistent with open ocean conditions. The tropospheric circulation displays a Pacific North America pattern-like anomaly with negative phase in G1-piControl and positive phase under abrupt4xCO2-piControl.