Marine biological shifts and climate.

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
• Main Authors: Beaugrand, Gregory, Goberville, Eric, Luczak, Christophe, Kirby, Richard
• Other Authors: Laboratoire d’Océanologie et de Géosciences (LOG) - UMR 8187 (LOG), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale (ULCO)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Nord )
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2014
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; Calanus finmarchicus; North Atlantic; Copepods
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-01010213; https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.3350

International audience Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and services, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are deterministic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes. We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70% of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56% of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958-2009.