Climate impact of stratospheric ozone recovery

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Bekki, Slimane, Rap, Alexandru, Poulain, Virginie, Dhomse, Sandip, Marchand, Marion, Lefèvre, Franck, Forster, Piers M., Laval-Szopa, Sophie, Chipperfield, Martyn P.
• Other Authors: STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science Leeds (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), European Commission, U.K. Natural Environment Research Council, European Project: 226365,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2008-1,RECONCILE(2009)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2013
• Subjects: Stratospheric ozone; Climate; [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00802252; https://hal.science/hal-00802252/document; https://hal.science/hal-00802252/file/Bekki_et_al-2013-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50358

International audience Past stratospheric ozone depletion has acted to cool the Earth's surface. As the result of the phase-out of anthropogenic halogenated compounds emissions, stratospheric ozone is projected to recover and its radiative forcing (RF-O 3 ~ -0.05 W/m 2 presently) might therefore be expected to decay in line with ozone recovery itself. Using results from chemistry-climate models, we find that, although model projections using a standard greenhouse gas scenario broadly agree on the future evolution of global ozone, they strongly disagree on RF-O 3 because of a large model spread in ozone changes in a narrow (several km thick) layer, in the northern lowermost stratosphere. Clearly, future changes in global stratospheric ozone cannot be considered an indicator of its overall RF. The multi-model mean RF-O 3 estimate for 2100 is +0.06 W/m 2 but with a range such that it could remain negative throughout this century or change sign and reach up to ~0.25 W/m 2 .