Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis

• Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research
• Main Authors: Austin, John, Scinocca, J., Plummer, D., Oman, L., Waugh, D., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, Slimane, Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, David, Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Frith, S., Garcia, R., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, Marion, Michou, M., Morgenstern, Olaf, Nakamura, T., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Teyssedre, H., Wilson, R. J., Yamashita, Y.
• Other Authors: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Baltimore, Johns Hopkins University (JHU), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NCAS-Climate Cambridge, Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK, University of Cambridge UK (CAM)-University of Cambridge UK (CAM), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE), University of Leeds, DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham (SSAI), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), University of L'Aquila Italy (UNIVAQ), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich), Department of Physics Toronto, University of Toronto, Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2010
• Subjects: Ozone recovery; Ozone decline; Chemistry-climate models; [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph]; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Antarc*
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00510595; https://hal.science/hal-00510595/document; https://hal.science/hal-00510595/file/Austin_et_al-2010-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857

International audience Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations.