Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis
International audience Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2010
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00510595 https://hal.science/hal-00510595/document https://hal.science/hal-00510595/file/Austin_et_al-2010-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
Ozone recovery Ozone decline Chemistry-climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
spellingShingle |
Ozone recovery Ozone decline Chemistry-climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M. P. Cugnet, David Dameris, M. Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S. C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J. F. Mancini, E. Marchand, Marion Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T. G. Shibata, K. Teyssedre, H. Wilson, R. J. Yamashita, Y. Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
topic_facet |
Ozone recovery Ozone decline Chemistry-climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] |
description |
International audience Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations. |
author2 |
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Baltimore Johns Hopkins University (JHU) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) NCAS-Climate Cambridge Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK University of Cambridge UK (CAM)-University of Cambridge UK (CAM) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE) University of Leeds DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA) Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham (SSAI) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) University of L'Aquila Italy (UNIVAQ) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Department of Physics Toronto University of Toronto Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M. P. Cugnet, David Dameris, M. Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S. C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J. F. Mancini, E. Marchand, Marion Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T. G. Shibata, K. Teyssedre, H. Wilson, R. J. Yamashita, Y. |
author_facet |
Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M. P. Cugnet, David Dameris, M. Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S. C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J. F. Mancini, E. Marchand, Marion Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T. G. Shibata, K. Teyssedre, H. Wilson, R. J. Yamashita, Y. |
author_sort |
Austin, John |
title |
Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_short |
Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_full |
Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_fullStr |
Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
title_sort |
decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00510595 https://hal.science/hal-00510595/document https://hal.science/hal-00510595/file/Austin_et_al-2010-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-00510595 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2010, 115 (D3), pp.D00M10. ⟨10.1029/2010JD013857⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2010JD013857 hal-00510595 https://hal.science/hal-00510595 https://hal.science/hal-00510595/document https://hal.science/hal-00510595/file/Austin_et_al-2010-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf doi:10.1029/2010JD013857 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research |
container_volume |
115 |
_version_ |
1785542828768624640 |
spelling |
ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-00510595v1 2023-12-17T10:22:05+01:00 Decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis Austin, John Scinocca, J. Plummer, D. Oman, L. Waugh, D. Akiyoshi, H. Bekki, Slimane Braesicke, P. Butchart, N. Chipperfield, M. P. Cugnet, David Dameris, M. Dhomse, S. Eyring, V. Frith, S. Garcia, R. Garny, H. Gettelman, A. Hardiman, S. C. Kinnison, D. Lamarque, J. F. Mancini, E. Marchand, Marion Michou, M. Morgenstern, Olaf Nakamura, T. Pawson, S. Pitari, G. Pyle, J. Rozanov, E. Shepherd, T. G. Shibata, K. Teyssedre, H. Wilson, R. J. Yamashita, Y. NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Environment and Climate Change Canada Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Baltimore Johns Hopkins University (JHU) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) STRATO - LATMOS Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) NCAS-Climate Cambridge Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK University of Cambridge UK (CAM)-University of Cambridge UK (CAM) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter School of Earth and Environment Leeds (SEE) University of Leeds DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA) Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling (DLR) NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham (SSAI) National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) University of L'Aquila Italy (UNIVAQ) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Lauder (NIWA) Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC) Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science Zürich (IAC) Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich (ETH Zürich) Department of Physics Toronto University of Toronto Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba (MRI) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 2010 https://hal.science/hal-00510595 https://hal.science/hal-00510595/document https://hal.science/hal-00510595/file/Austin_et_al-2010-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2010JD013857 hal-00510595 https://hal.science/hal-00510595 https://hal.science/hal-00510595/document https://hal.science/hal-00510595/file/Austin_et_al-2010-Journal_of_Geophysical_Research__Solid_Earth_%281978-2012%29.pdf doi:10.1029/2010JD013857 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-00510595 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2010, 115 (D3), pp.D00M10. ⟨10.1029/2010JD013857⟩ Ozone recovery Ozone decline Chemistry-climate models [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2010 ftinsu https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013857 2023-11-22T17:50:44Z International audience Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960–2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU Antarctic The Antarctic Journal of Geophysical Research 115 |