Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon
International audience The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios (2070?2100) suggest that the UK climate will become warmer (an overall increase of 2.5?3°C), with temperature increases being greater in the summer and autumn than in the spring and winter seasons. In terms of precipitation, winters are exp...
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ftinsu:oai:HAL:hal-00305655v1 2023-11-12T04:14:34+01:00 Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon Walsh, C. L. Kilsby, C. G. Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory Newcastle University Newcastle 2007-04-27 https://hal.science/hal-00305655 https://hal.science/hal-00305655/document https://hal.science/hal-00305655/file/hess-11-1127-2007.pdf en eng HAL CCSD European Geosciences Union hal-00305655 https://hal.science/hal-00305655 https://hal.science/hal-00305655/document https://hal.science/hal-00305655/file/hess-11-1127-2007.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1812-2108 EISSN: 1812-2116 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions https://hal.science/hal-00305655 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2007, 11 (3), pp.1127-1143 [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2007 ftinsu 2023-10-25T16:25:50Z International audience The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios (2070?2100) suggest that the UK climate will become warmer (an overall increase of 2.5?3°C), with temperature increases being greater in the summer and autumn than in the spring and winter seasons. In terms of precipitation, winters are expected to become wetter and summers drier throughout the UK. The effect of changes in the future climate on flow regimes are investigated for the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in a case study in an upland UK river. Using a hydraulic modelling approach, flows simulated across the catchment are assessed in terms of hydraulic characteristics (discharge per metre width, flow depths, flow velocities and Froude number). These, compared with suitable characteristics published in the literature for various life stages of Atlantic salmon, enable assessment of habitat suitability. Climate change factors have been applied to meteorological observations in the Eden catchment (north-west England) and effects on the flow regime have been investigated using the SHETRAN hydrological modelling system. High flows are predicted to increase by up to 1.5%; yet, a greater impact is predicted from decreasing low flows (e.g. a Q95 at the outlet of the study catchment may decrease to a Q85 flow). Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) analysis provides a statistical indication of the extent and effect of such changes on flows. Results show that future climate will decrease the percentage time the ideal minimum physical habitat requirements will be met. In the case of suitable flow depth for spawning activity at the outlet of the catchment, the percentage time may decrease from 100% under current conditions to 94% in the future. Such changes will have implications for the species under the Habitats Directive and for catchment ecological flow management strategies. Article in Journal/Newspaper Atlantic salmon Salmo salar Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
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Open Polar |
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Institut national des sciences de l'Univers: HAL-INSU |
op_collection_id |
ftinsu |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Walsh, C. L. Kilsby, C. G. Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon |
topic_facet |
[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios (2070?2100) suggest that the UK climate will become warmer (an overall increase of 2.5?3°C), with temperature increases being greater in the summer and autumn than in the spring and winter seasons. In terms of precipitation, winters are expected to become wetter and summers drier throughout the UK. The effect of changes in the future climate on flow regimes are investigated for the Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in a case study in an upland UK river. Using a hydraulic modelling approach, flows simulated across the catchment are assessed in terms of hydraulic characteristics (discharge per metre width, flow depths, flow velocities and Froude number). These, compared with suitable characteristics published in the literature for various life stages of Atlantic salmon, enable assessment of habitat suitability. Climate change factors have been applied to meteorological observations in the Eden catchment (north-west England) and effects on the flow regime have been investigated using the SHETRAN hydrological modelling system. High flows are predicted to increase by up to 1.5%; yet, a greater impact is predicted from decreasing low flows (e.g. a Q95 at the outlet of the study catchment may decrease to a Q85 flow). Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV) analysis provides a statistical indication of the extent and effect of such changes on flows. Results show that future climate will decrease the percentage time the ideal minimum physical habitat requirements will be met. In the case of suitable flow depth for spawning activity at the outlet of the catchment, the percentage time may decrease from 100% under current conditions to 94% in the future. Such changes will have implications for the species under the Habitats Directive and for catchment ecological flow management strategies. |
author2 |
Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory Newcastle University Newcastle |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Walsh, C. L. Kilsby, C. G. |
author_facet |
Walsh, C. L. Kilsby, C. G. |
author_sort |
Walsh, C. L. |
title |
Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon |
title_short |
Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon |
title_full |
Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon |
title_fullStr |
Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon |
title_full_unstemmed |
Implications of climate change on flow regime affecting Atlantic salmon |
title_sort |
implications of climate change on flow regime affecting atlantic salmon |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00305655 https://hal.science/hal-00305655/document https://hal.science/hal-00305655/file/hess-11-1127-2007.pdf |
genre |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon Salmo salar |
op_source |
ISSN: 1812-2108 EISSN: 1812-2116 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions https://hal.science/hal-00305655 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2007, 11 (3), pp.1127-1143 |
op_relation |
hal-00305655 https://hal.science/hal-00305655 https://hal.science/hal-00305655/document https://hal.science/hal-00305655/file/hess-11-1127-2007.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1782332214647717888 |