Extrapolating future Arctic ozone losses

• Main Authors: Knudsen, B. M., Andersen, S. B., Christiansen, B., Larsen, N., Rex, M., Harris, N. R. P., Naujokat, B.
• Other Authors: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Department of Bentho-pelagic processes, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung = Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research = Institut Alfred-Wegener pour la recherche polaire et marine (AWI), Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association-Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, European Ozone Research Coordinating Unit Cambridge (EORCU), University of Cambridge UK (CAM), Freie Universität Berlin
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2004
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00301299; https://hal.science/hal-00301299/document; https://hal.science/hal-00301299/file/acpd-4-3227-2004.pdf

International audience Future increases in the concentration of greenhouse gases and water vapour are likely to cool the stratosphere further and to increase the amount of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Future Arctic PSC areas have been extrapolated using the highly significant trends in the temperature record from 1958?2001. Using a tight correlation between PSC area and the total vortex ozone depletion and taking the decreasing amounts of ozone depleting substances into account we make empirical estimates of future ozone. The result is that Arctic ozone losses increase until 2010?2020 and only decrease slightly up to 2030. This approach is an alternative method of prediction to that based on the complex coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs).