NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign

• Main Authors: Mccormack, J. P., Eckermann, S. D., Coy, L., Allen, D. R., Kim, Y.-J., Hogan, T., Lawrence, B., Stephens, A., Browell, E. V., Burris, J., Mcgee, T., Trepte, C. R.
• Other Authors: E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Remote Sensing Division, NRL's Marine Meteorology Division, British Atmospheric Data Center, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC)-Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC), NASA Headquarters, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2004
• Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00295561; https://hal.science/hal-00295561/document; https://hal.science/hal-00295561/file/acp-4-2401-2004.pdf

International audience This paper presents three-dimensional prognostic O 3 simulations with parameterized gas-phase photochemistry from the new NOGAPS-ALPHA middle atmosphere forecast model. We compare 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of stratospheric O 3 with satellite and DC-8 aircraft measurements for two cases during the SOLVE II campaign: (1) the cold, isolated vortex during 11-16 January 2003; and (2) the rapidly developing stratospheric warming of 17-22 January 2003. In the first case we test three different photochemistry parameterizations. NOGAPS-ALPHA O 3 simulations using the NRL-CHEM2D parameterization give the best agreement with SAGE III and POAM III profile measurements. 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of polar O 3 initialized with the NASA GEOS4 analyses produce better agreement with observations than do the operational ECMWF O 3 forecasts of case 1. For case 2, both NOGAPS-ALPHA and ECMWF 114-h forecasts of the split vortex structure in lower stratospheric O 3 on 21 January 2003 show comparable skill. Updated ECMWF O 3 forecasts of this event at hour 42 display marked improvement from the 114-h forecast; corresponding updated 42-hour NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O 3 fields initialized with the GEOS4 analyses do not improve significantly. When NOGAPS-ALPHA prognostic O 3 is initialized with the higher resolution ECMWF O 3 analyses, the NOGAPS-ALPHA 42-hour lower stratospheric O 3 fields closely match the operational 42-hour ECMWF O 3 forecast of the 21 January event. We find that stratospheric O 3 forecasts at high latitudes in winter can depend on both model initial conditions and the treatment of photochemistry over periods of 1-5 days. Overall, these results show that the new O 3 initialization, photochemistry parameterization, and spectral transport in the NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP model can provide reliable short-range stratospheric O 3 forecasts during Arctic winter.