Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild
International audience Detecting senescence in wild populations and estimating its strength raise three challenges. First, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in survival probability, the proportion of high-survival individuals increases with age. This increase can mask a senescence-related...
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ftinstagro:oai:HAL:hal-02126325v1 2024-05-19T07:50:04+00:00 Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild Péron, Guillaume Crochet, Pierre-André Choquet, Rémi Pradel, Roger Lebreton, Jean-Dominique Gimenez, Olivier Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) 2010 https://hal.science/hal-02126325 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x en eng HAL CCSD Nordic Ecological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x hal-02126325 https://hal.science/hal-02126325 doi:10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x ISSN: 0030-1299 EISSN: 1600-0706 Oikos https://hal.science/hal-02126325 Oikos, 2010, 119 (3), pp.524 - 532. ⟨10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2010 ftinstagro https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x 2024-04-25T17:20:23Z International audience Detecting senescence in wild populations and estimating its strength raise three challenges. First, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in survival probability, the proportion of high-survival individuals increases with age. This increase can mask a senescence-related decrease in survival probability when the probability is estimated at the population level. To accommodate individual heterogeneity we use a mixture model structure (discrete classes of individuals). Second, the study individuals can elude the observers in the field, and their detection rate can be heterogeneous. To account for detectability issues we use capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methodology, mixture models and data that provide information on indi-viduals' detectability. Last, emigration to non-monitored sites can bias survival estimates, because it can occur at the end of the individuals' histories and mimic earlier death. To model emigration we use Markovian transitions to and from an unobservable state. These different model structures are merged together using hidden Markov chain CMR models, or multievent models. Simulation studies illustrate that reliable evidence for survival senescence can be obtained using highly heterogeneous data from non site-faithful individuals. We then design a tailored application for a dataset from a colony of black-headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus. Survival probabilities do not appear individually variable, but evidence for survival senescence becomes significant only when accounting for other sources of heterogeneity. This result suggests that not accounting for heterogeneity leads to flawed inference and/or that emigration heterogeneity mimics survival heteroge-neity and biases senescence estimates. Article in Journal/Newspaper Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus Portail HAL Institut Agro Oikos 119 3 524 532 |
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English |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences Péron, Guillaume Crochet, Pierre-André Choquet, Rémi Pradel, Roger Lebreton, Jean-Dominique Gimenez, Olivier Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Detecting senescence in wild populations and estimating its strength raise three challenges. First, in the presence of individual heterogeneity in survival probability, the proportion of high-survival individuals increases with age. This increase can mask a senescence-related decrease in survival probability when the probability is estimated at the population level. To accommodate individual heterogeneity we use a mixture model structure (discrete classes of individuals). Second, the study individuals can elude the observers in the field, and their detection rate can be heterogeneous. To account for detectability issues we use capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methodology, mixture models and data that provide information on indi-viduals' detectability. Last, emigration to non-monitored sites can bias survival estimates, because it can occur at the end of the individuals' histories and mimic earlier death. To model emigration we use Markovian transitions to and from an unobservable state. These different model structures are merged together using hidden Markov chain CMR models, or multievent models. Simulation studies illustrate that reliable evidence for survival senescence can be obtained using highly heterogeneous data from non site-faithful individuals. We then design a tailored application for a dataset from a colony of black-headed gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus. Survival probabilities do not appear individually variable, but evidence for survival senescence becomes significant only when accounting for other sources of heterogeneity. This result suggests that not accounting for heterogeneity leads to flawed inference and/or that emigration heterogeneity mimics survival heteroge-neity and biases senescence estimates. |
author2 |
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro Montpellier Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Université de Montpellier (UM) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Péron, Guillaume Crochet, Pierre-André Choquet, Rémi Pradel, Roger Lebreton, Jean-Dominique Gimenez, Olivier |
author_facet |
Péron, Guillaume Crochet, Pierre-André Choquet, Rémi Pradel, Roger Lebreton, Jean-Dominique Gimenez, Olivier |
author_sort |
Péron, Guillaume |
title |
Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild |
title_short |
Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild |
title_full |
Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild |
title_fullStr |
Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild |
title_full_unstemmed |
Capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild |
title_sort |
capture-recapture models with heterogeneity to study survival senescence in the wild |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02126325 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x |
genre |
Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus |
genre_facet |
Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus |
op_source |
ISSN: 0030-1299 EISSN: 1600-0706 Oikos https://hal.science/hal-02126325 Oikos, 2010, 119 (3), pp.524 - 532. ⟨10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x hal-02126325 https://hal.science/hal-02126325 doi:10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-1706.2009.17882.x |
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Oikos |
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119 |
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3 |
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524 |
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532 |
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1799468648582086656 |