A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions
International audience The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then t...
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ftinspolytechpar:oai:HAL:insu-04195490v1 2024-06-16T07:41:51+00:00 A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions Rousseau, Denis-Didier Bagniewski, Witold Lucarini, Valerio Géosciences Montpellier Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) 2023 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/file/s41598-023-38454-6.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/2212.06239 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 insu-04195490 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/file/s41598-023-38454-6.pdf ARXIV: 2212.06239 BIBCODE: 2023NatSR.1311290R doi:10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490 Scientific Reports, 2023, 13, ⟨10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6⟩ Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Physics - Data Analysis Statistics and Probability Physics - Geophysics [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftinspolytechpar https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 2024-05-19T23:42:58Z International audience The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic HAL de l'Institut Polytechnique de Paris Scientific Reports 13 1 |
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Open Polar |
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HAL de l'Institut Polytechnique de Paris |
op_collection_id |
ftinspolytechpar |
language |
English |
topic |
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Physics - Data Analysis Statistics and Probability Physics - Geophysics [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Physics - Data Analysis Statistics and Probability Physics - Geophysics [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Rousseau, Denis-Didier Bagniewski, Witold Lucarini, Valerio A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions |
topic_facet |
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Physics - Data Analysis Statistics and Probability Physics - Geophysics [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points. |
author2 |
Géosciences Montpellier Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rousseau, Denis-Didier Bagniewski, Witold Lucarini, Valerio |
author_facet |
Rousseau, Denis-Didier Bagniewski, Witold Lucarini, Valerio |
author_sort |
Rousseau, Denis-Didier |
title |
A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions |
title_short |
A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions |
title_full |
A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions |
title_fullStr |
A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions |
title_full_unstemmed |
A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions |
title_sort |
punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/file/s41598-023-38454-6.pdf https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 2045-2322 EISSN: 2045-2322 Scientific Reports https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490 Scientific Reports, 2023, 13, ⟨10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/arxiv/2212.06239 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 insu-04195490 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490 https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-04195490/file/s41598-023-38454-6.pdf ARXIV: 2212.06239 BIBCODE: 2023NatSR.1311290R doi:10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38454-6 |
container_title |
Scientific Reports |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1802009172049395712 |