Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble
International audience We assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July-September target season m...
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Online Access: | https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Giannini%20-%20Advances%20in%20the%20Lead%20Time%20of%20Sahel%20Rainfall%20Prediction%20With%20the%20North.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087341 |
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ftinspolytechpar:oai:HAL:insu-03726986v2 2024-06-16T07:41:42+00:00 Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble Giannini, A. Ali, A. Kelley, C. P. Lamptey, B. L. Minoungou, B. Ndiaye, O. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) ANR-17-MPGA-0015,PRODUCT,processes of climate change in the tropics(2017) 2020 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Giannini%20-%20Advances%20in%20the%20Lead%20Time%20of%20Sahel%20Rainfall%20Prediction%20With%20the%20North.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087341 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020GL087341 insu-03726986 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Giannini%20-%20Advances%20in%20the%20Lead%20Time%20of%20Sahel%20Rainfall%20Prediction%20With%20the%20North.pdf BIBCODE: 2020GeoRL.4787341G doi:10.1029/2020GL087341 http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47, ⟨10.1029/2020GL087341⟩ seasonal climate prediction Sahel PRESA-SS precipitation El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate services [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftinspolytechpar https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087341 2024-05-19T23:43:45Z International audience We assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July-September target season made as early as February/March and as late as June. The two dominant influences on the climate of the Sahel, the North Atlantic and the global tropical oceans, shape this predictability. Multimodel ensemble skill hinges on the combination of skillful predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation made with one model (CMC2-CanCM4) with those of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures made with another (NASA-GEOSS2S). Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic HAL de l'Institut Polytechnique de Paris Geophysical Research Letters 47 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
HAL de l'Institut Polytechnique de Paris |
op_collection_id |
ftinspolytechpar |
language |
English |
topic |
seasonal climate prediction Sahel PRESA-SS precipitation El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate services [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
seasonal climate prediction Sahel PRESA-SS precipitation El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate services [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Giannini, A. Ali, A. Kelley, C. P. Lamptey, B. L. Minoungou, B. Ndiaye, O. Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
topic_facet |
seasonal climate prediction Sahel PRESA-SS precipitation El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate services [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience We assess the deterministic skill in seasonal climate predictions of Sahel rainfall made with the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). We find that skill for a regionally averaged rainfall index is essentially the same for forecasts for the July-September target season made as early as February/March and as late as June. The two dominant influences on the climate of the Sahel, the North Atlantic and the global tropical oceans, shape this predictability. Multimodel ensemble skill hinges on the combination of skillful predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation made with one model (CMC2-CanCM4) with those of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures made with another (NASA-GEOSS2S). |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) ANR-17-MPGA-0015,PRODUCT,processes of climate change in the tropics(2017) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Giannini, A. Ali, A. Kelley, C. P. Lamptey, B. L. Minoungou, B. Ndiaye, O. |
author_facet |
Giannini, A. Ali, A. Kelley, C. P. Lamptey, B. L. Minoungou, B. Ndiaye, O. |
author_sort |
Giannini, A. |
title |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_short |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_full |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_fullStr |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_full_unstemmed |
Advances in the Lead Time of Sahel Rainfall Prediction With the North American Multimodel Ensemble |
title_sort |
advances in the lead time of sahel rainfall prediction with the north american multimodel ensemble |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Giannini%20-%20Advances%20in%20the%20Lead%20Time%20of%20Sahel%20Rainfall%20Prediction%20With%20the%20North.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087341 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986 Geophysical Research Letters, 2020, 47, ⟨10.1029/2020GL087341⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020GL087341 insu-03726986 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03726986v2/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202020%20-%20Giannini%20-%20Advances%20in%20the%20Lead%20Time%20of%20Sahel%20Rainfall%20Prediction%20With%20the%20North.pdf BIBCODE: 2020GeoRL.4787341G doi:10.1029/2020GL087341 |
op_rights |
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087341 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
47 |
container_issue |
9 |
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1802008987351121920 |