Massive and infrequent informed emigration events in a species threatened by climate change: the emperor penguins

• Main Authors: Garnier, Jimmy, Clucas, Gemma, Younger, Jane, Sen, Bilgecan, Barbraud, Christophe, Larue, Michelle, Fraser, Alexander D., Labrousse, Sara, Jenouvrier, Stéphanie
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de Mathématiques (LAMA), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Cornell Laboratory of Ornithology, Cornell University New York, Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath Bath, Stony Brook University SUNY (SBU), State University of New York (SUNY), Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterburry, Institute for Marine and Antartic Studies, University of Tasmania, Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Biology Department (WHOI), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2023
• Subjects: dispersal distance; dispersal kernel; dispersal range; emigration rates; [MATH.MATH-AP]Mathematics [math]/Analysis of PDEs [math.AP]; [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology; environment; Antarc*; Antarctica; Emperor penguins; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03822288; https://hal.science/hal-03822288v2/document; https://hal.science/hal-03822288v2/file/EP_dispersion_Biological_conservation%20%289%29.pdf

Dispersal is a ubiquitous phenomenon which affects the population dynamics and evolution of natural populations, hence it is a fundamental process in driving species persistence under global changes. However, dispersal rates and dispersal range are difficult to measure in most species, and remain unknown for many. In addition, informed behaviors, whereby individuals leave their natal area and select a breeding habitat non-randomly, may play an important role in species' responses to global change, and are even more difficult to comprehend. By developing new models combing demographic and genetic data, we reveal dispersal rates, range and behaviors for emperor penguin, a species threatened by climate change and living in the most remote place on earth where measurements of dispersal are nonexistent. We found that emperor penguins have a short distance of dispersal compared to their capacity to cover large distances during seasonal migration. On average, emigration rates are small, with emigration occurring when the local habitat becomes unsuitable (informed emigration). While overall dispersal rates remain low, occasional mass emigration events can occur in some regions. We also detect environmental and demographic drivers of emigration using new independent data:emigration is more likely to occur for habitats far from open water and with low food availability. Finally, we provided new global population forecasts for emperor penguins that incorporate dispersal processes into a sea-ice dependent demographic model that can inform conservation actions in Antarctica. Our method can be applied to other species and data-poor systems to estimate dispersal processes.