On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models
International audience CMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities....
Published in: | Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2021
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03318349 https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14659 |
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HAL de l'Institut Polytechnique de Paris |
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English |
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[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] Swingedouw, Didier Bily, Adrien Esquerdo, Claire Borchert, Leonard F. Sgubin, Giovanni Mignot, Juliette Menary, Matthew, B On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience CMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics—most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions—and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models. |
author2 |
Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Swingedouw, Didier Bily, Adrien Esquerdo, Claire Borchert, Leonard F. Sgubin, Giovanni Mignot, Juliette Menary, Matthew, B |
author_facet |
Swingedouw, Didier Bily, Adrien Esquerdo, Claire Borchert, Leonard F. Sgubin, Giovanni Mignot, Juliette Menary, Matthew, B |
author_sort |
Swingedouw, Didier |
title |
On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models |
title_short |
On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models |
title_full |
On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models |
title_fullStr |
On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models |
title_sort |
on the risk of abrupt changes in the north atlantic subpolar gyre in cmip6 models |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03318349 https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14659 |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0077-8923 EISSN: 1749-6632 Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences https://hal.science/hal-03318349 Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2021, 1504 (1), pp.187-201. ⟨10.1111/nyas.14659⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/nyas.14659 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/https//789445/EU/Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe/EPICE hal-03318349 https://hal.science/hal-03318349 doi:10.1111/nyas.14659 IRD: fdi:010082243 WOS: 000668877100001 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14659 |
container_title |
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences |
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1799471575643193344 |
spelling |
ftinspolytechpar:oai:HAL:hal-03318349v1 2024-05-19T07:33:29+00:00 On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models Swingedouw, Didier Bily, Adrien Esquerdo, Claire Borchert, Leonard F. Sgubin, Giovanni Mignot, Juliette Menary, Matthew, B Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC) Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU) Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017) European Project: 789445,https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/789445/reporting,EPICE(2018) 2021-11 https://hal.science/hal-03318349 https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14659 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/nyas.14659 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//776613/EU/European Climate Prediction system/EUCP info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/https//789445/EU/Emergent Properties to Improve Climate projections over Europe/EPICE hal-03318349 https://hal.science/hal-03318349 doi:10.1111/nyas.14659 IRD: fdi:010082243 WOS: 000668877100001 ISSN: 0077-8923 EISSN: 1749-6632 Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences https://hal.science/hal-03318349 Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 2021, 1504 (1), pp.187-201. ⟨10.1111/nyas.14659⟩ [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftinspolytechpar https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14659 2024-04-22T01:47:52Z International audience CMIP5 models have been shown to exhibit rapid cooling events in their projections of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Here, we analyze the CMIP6 archive, searching for such rapid cooling events in the new generation of models. Four models out of 35 exhibit such instabilities. The climatic impacts of these events are large on decadal timescales, with a substantial effect on surface temperature over Europe, precipitation pattern in the tropics—most notably the Sahel and Amazon regions—and a possible impact on the mean atmospheric circulation. The mechanisms leading to these events are related to the collapse of deep convection in the subpolar gyre, modifying profoundly the oceanic circulation. Analysis of stratification in the subpolar gyre as compared with observations highlights that the biases of the models explain relatively well the spread in their projections of surface temperature trends: models showing the smallest stratification biases over the recent period also show the weakest warming trends. The models exhibiting abrupt cooling rank among the 11 best models for this stratification indicator, leading to a risk of encountering an abrupt cooling event of up to 36.4%, slightly lower than the 45.5% estimated in CMIP5 models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic North Atlantic HAL de l'Institut Polytechnique de Paris Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences |