Should Sea-Ice Modeling Tools Designed for Climate Research Be Used for Short-Term Forecasting?

• Published in: Current Climate Change Reports
• Main Authors: Hunke, Elizabeth, Allard, Richard, Blain, Philippe, Blockley, Ed, Feltham, Daniel, Fichefet, Thierry, Garric, Gilles, Grumbine, Robert, Lemieux, Jean-François, Rasmussen, Till, Ribergaard, Mads, Roberts, Andrew, Schweiger, Axel, Tietsche, Steffen, Tremblay, Bruno, Vancoppenolle, Martin, Zhang, Jinlun
• Other Authors: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center (NRL-SSC), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), Centre de prévision météorologique et environnementale du Canada, Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, University of Reading (UOR), Earth and Life Institute - Environmental Sciences (ELIE), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Mercator Océan, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Service hydrographique et océanographique de la Marine-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France, NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Polar Science Center Seattle, Applied Physics Laboratory Seattle (APL-UW), University of Washington Seattle -University of Washington Seattle, McGill University = Université McGill Montréal, Canada, Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), European Project: 824084,IS-ENES3(2019)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02957870; https://hal.science/hal-02957870/document; https://hal.science/hal-02957870/file/Hunke2020_Article_ShouldSea-IceModelingToolsDesi-1.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-020-00162-y

International audience In theory, the same sea-ice models could be used for both research and operations, but in practice, differences in scientific and software requirements and computational and human resources complicate the matter. Although sea-ice modeling tools developed for climate studies and other research applications produce output of interest to operational forecast users, such as ice motion, convergence, and internal ice pressure, the relevant spatial and temporal scales may not be sufficiently resolved. For instance, sea-ice research codes are typically run with horizontal resolution of more than 3 km, while mariners need information on scales less than 300 m. Certain sea-ice processes and coupled feedbacks that are critical to simulating the Earth system may not be relevant on these scales; and therefore, the most important model upgrades for improving sea-ice predictions might be made in the atmosphere and ocean components of coupled models or in their coupling mechanisms, rather than in the sea-ice model itself. This paper discusses some of the challenges in applying sea-ice modeling tools developed for research purposes for operational forecasting on short time scales, and highlights promising new directions in sea-ice modeling.