Quantification of the Arctic Sea Ice-Driven Atmospheric Circulation Variability in Coordinated Large Ensemble Simulations

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Liang, Yu‐chiao, Kwon, Young‐Oh, Frankignoul, Claude, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Yeager, Stephen, Cherchi, Annalisa, Gao, Yongqi, Gastineau, Guillaume, Ghosh, Rohit, Matei, Daniela, Mecking, Jennifer, V., Peano, Daniele, Suo, Lingling, Tian, Tian
• Other Authors: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Bologna (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Bergen (NERSC), Nansen-Zhu International Research Center (NZC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Oceanography Centre Southampton (NOC), University of Southampton, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]; Arctic; Climate change; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02495565; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02495565/document; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-02495565/file/Liang_et_al-2020-Geophysical_Research_Letters.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085397

International audience A coordinated set of large ensemble atmosphere-only simulations is used to investigate the impacts of observed Arctic sea ice-driven variability (SIDV) on the atmospheric circulation during 1979-2014. The experimental protocol permits separating Arctic SIDV from internal variability and variability driven by other forcings including sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. The geographic pattern of SIDV is consistent across seven participating models, but its magnitude strongly depends on ensemble size. Based on 130 members, winter SIDV is~0.18 hPa 2 for Arctic-averaged sea level pressure (~1.5% of the total variance), and~0.35 K 2 for surface air temperature (~21%) at interannual and longer timescales. The results suggest that more than 100 (40) members are needed to separate Arctic SIDV from other components for dynamical (thermodynamical) variables, and insufficient ensemble size always leads to overestimation of SIDV. Nevertheless, SIDV is 0.75-1.5 times as large as the variability driven by other forcings over northern Eurasia and Arctic. Plain Language Summary Changing Arctic sea ice conditions since the late 1970s have exerted profound impacts on environment and ecosystem at the high latitudes and have been suggested to affect midlatitude weather and climate, although this topic has been controversial. In order to improve our understanding on how Arctic sea ice changes influence local and remote weather and climate, a coordinated set of experiments has been performed using various state-of-the-art atmosphere-only models to study the linkages between the Arctic climate change and lower latitudes. This study uses seven models following a common experimental protocol to investigate the atmospheric circulation changes forced by Arctic sea ice variability. The protocol allows the Arctic sea ice-driven variability (SIDV) to be singled out. In boreal winter, the Arctic SIDV is~0.18 hPa 2 and accounts for only~1.5% of the total variance for sea level pressure, while it is~0.35 K 2 ...