Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment.
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimat...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2016
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/ https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/1/P2900.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
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ftinrsquebec:oai:espace.inrs.ca:3962 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Québec: Espace INRS |
op_collection_id |
ftinrsquebec |
language |
English |
topic |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion |
spellingShingle |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, Stuart F. Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, Syndonia M. Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, David A. Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C De Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. |
topic_facet |
permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion |
description |
As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, Stuart F. Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, Syndonia M. Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, David A. Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C De Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong |
author_facet |
Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, Stuart F. Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, Syndonia M. Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, David A. Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C De Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong |
author_sort |
Abbott, Benjamin W. |
title |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. |
title_short |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. |
title_full |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. |
title_fullStr |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. |
title_sort |
biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/ https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/1/P2900.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_relation |
https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/1/P2900.pdf Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, Stuart F., Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, Syndonia M., Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, David A., Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C, De Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko L., Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Paré, David, Parisien, Marc-André, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg, Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schädel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M. et Zimov, Sergei (2016). Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters , vol. 11 , nº 3. 034014. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014>. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
034014 |
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1766325994492264448 |
spelling |
ftinrsquebec:oai:espace.inrs.ca:3962 2023-05-15T14:54:16+02:00 Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Abbott, Benjamin W. Jones, Jeremy B. Schuur, Edward A. G. Chapin, Stuart F. Bowden, William B. Bret-Harte, Syndonia M. Epstein, Howard E. Flannigan, Michael D. Harms, Tamara K. Hollingsworth, Teresa N. Mack, Michelle C. McGuire, David A. Natali, Susan M. Rocha, Adrian V. Tank, Suzanne E. Turetsky, Merritt R. Vonk, Jorien E. Wickland, Kimberly P. Aiken, George R. Alexander, Heather D. Amon, Rainer M. W. Benscoter, Brian W. Bergeron, Yves Bishop, Kevin Blarquez, Olivier Bond-Lamberty, Ben Breen, Amy L. Buffam, Ishi Cai, Yihua Carcaillet, Christopher Carey, Sean K. Chen, Jing M. Chen, Han Y. H. Christensen, Torben R. Cooper, Lee W. Cornelissen, J. Hans C De Groot, William J. DeLuca, Thomas H. Dorrepaal, Ellen Fetcher, Ned Finlay, Jacques C. Forbes, Bruce C. French, Nancy H. F. Gauthier, Sylvie Girardin, Martin P. Goetz, Scott J. Goldammer, Johann G. Gough, Laura Grogan, Paul Guo, Laodong 2016 application/pdf https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/ https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/1/P2900.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 en eng https://espace.inrs.ca/id/eprint/3962/1/P2900.pdf Abbott, Benjamin W., Jones, Jeremy B., Schuur, Edward A. G., Chapin, Stuart F., Bowden, William B., Bret-Harte, Syndonia M., Epstein, Howard E., Flannigan, Michael D., Harms, Tamara K., Hollingsworth, Teresa N., Mack, Michelle C., McGuire, David A., Natali, Susan M., Rocha, Adrian V., Tank, Suzanne E., Turetsky, Merritt R., Vonk, Jorien E., Wickland, Kimberly P., Aiken, George R., Alexander, Heather D., Amon, Rainer M. W., Benscoter, Brian W., Bergeron, Yves, Bishop, Kevin, Blarquez, Olivier, Bond-Lamberty, Ben, Breen, Amy L., Buffam, Ishi, Cai, Yihua, Carcaillet, Christopher, Carey, Sean K., Chen, Jing M., Chen, Han Y. H., Christensen, Torben R., Cooper, Lee W., Cornelissen, J. Hans C, De Groot, William J., DeLuca, Thomas H., Dorrepaal, Ellen, Fetcher, Ned, Finlay, Jacques C., Forbes, Bruce C., French, Nancy H. F., Gauthier, Sylvie, Girardin, Martin P., Goetz, Scott J., Goldammer, Johann G., Gough, Laura, Grogan, Paul, Guo, Laodong, Higuera, Philip E., Hinzman, Larry, Hu, Feng Sheng, Hugelius, Gustaf, Jafarov, Elchin E., Jandt, Randi, Johnstone, Jill F., Karlsson, Jan, Kasischke, Eric S., Kattner, Gerhard, Kelly, Ryan, Keuper, Frida, Kling, George W., Kortelainen, Pirkko L., Kouki, Jari, Kuhry, Peter, Laudon, Hjalmar, Laurion, Isabelle, Macdonald, Robie W., Mann, Paul J., Martikainen, Pertti J., McClelland, James W., Molau, Ulf, Oberbauer, Steven F., Olefeldt, David, Paré, David, Parisien, Marc-André, Payette, Serge, Peng, Changhui, Pokrovsky, Oleg, Rastetter, Edward B., Raymond, Peter A., Raynolds, Martha K., Rein, Guillermo, Reynolds, James F., Robards, Martin, Rogers, Brendan M., Schädel, Christina, Schaefer, Kevin, Schmidt, Inger K., Shvidenko, Anatoly, Sky, Jasper, Spencer, Robert G. M., Starr, Gregory, Striegl, Robert G., Teisserenc, Roman, Tranvik, Lars J., Virtanen, Tarmo, Welker, Jeffrey M. et Zimov, Sergei (2016). Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters , vol. 11 , nº 3. 034014. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 <https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326%2F11%2F3%2F034014>. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 permafrost carbon Arctic boreal wildfire dissolved organic carbon particulate organic carbon coastal erosion Article Évalué par les pairs 2016 ftinrsquebec https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 2023-02-10T11:42:46Z As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change permafrost Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Québec: Espace INRS Arctic Environmental Research Letters 11 3 034014 |