A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice
Effective conservation requires monitoring and pro-active risk assessments.We studied the effects of at-sea mortality events (ASMEs) in marine mammals over two decades (1990–2012) and built a risk-based indicator for the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Strandings of harbor...
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Online Access: | http://prodinra.inra.fr/ft/3806815B-99E8-4E8C-817B-149F1E8B37C4 http://prodinra.inra.fr/record/463562 https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 |
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ftinraparis:oai:prodinra.inra.fr:463562 2023-05-15T17:59:11+02:00 A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu 2019 application/pdf http://prodinra.inra.fr/ft/3806815B-99E8-4E8C-817B-149F1E8B37C4 http://prodinra.inra.fr/record/463562 https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 eng eng https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ CC-BY Conservation Letters , 10 p. (2019) Biodiversité et Ecologie Biodiversity and Ecology bycatch;conservation;extreme event;extreme value theory;forecasting;marine mammal;marine strategic framework directive;mortality mammifère marin cetace mortalité conservation ARTICLE 2019 ftinraparis https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 2019-10-15T22:25:35Z Effective conservation requires monitoring and pro-active risk assessments.We studied the effects of at-sea mortality events (ASMEs) in marine mammals over two decades (1990–2012) and built a risk-based indicator for the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Strandings of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis), and striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba) along French coastlines were analyzed using Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT operationalizes what is an extreme ASME, and allows the probabilistic forecasting of the expected maximum number of dead animals assuming constant pressures. For the period 2013–2018, we forecast the strandings of 80 harbor porpoises, 860 common dolphins, and 57 striped dolphins in extreme ASMEs. Comparison of these forecasts with observed strandings informs whether pressures are increasing, decreasing, or stable. Applying probabilistic methods to stranding data facilitates the building of risk-based indicators, required under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, to monitor the effect of pressures on marine mammals. Article in Journal/Newspaper Phocoena phocoena Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRA Conservation Letters 12 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRA |
op_collection_id |
ftinraparis |
language |
English |
topic |
Biodiversité et Ecologie Biodiversity and Ecology bycatch;conservation;extreme event;extreme value theory;forecasting;marine mammal;marine strategic framework directive;mortality mammifère marin cetace mortalité conservation |
spellingShingle |
Biodiversité et Ecologie Biodiversity and Ecology bycatch;conservation;extreme event;extreme value theory;forecasting;marine mammal;marine strategic framework directive;mortality mammifère marin cetace mortalité conservation Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
topic_facet |
Biodiversité et Ecologie Biodiversity and Ecology bycatch;conservation;extreme event;extreme value theory;forecasting;marine mammal;marine strategic framework directive;mortality mammifère marin cetace mortalité conservation |
description |
Effective conservation requires monitoring and pro-active risk assessments.We studied the effects of at-sea mortality events (ASMEs) in marine mammals over two decades (1990–2012) and built a risk-based indicator for the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Strandings of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), short-beaked common dolphins (Delphinus delphis), and striped dolphins (Stenella coeruleoalba) along French coastlines were analyzed using Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT operationalizes what is an extreme ASME, and allows the probabilistic forecasting of the expected maximum number of dead animals assuming constant pressures. For the period 2013–2018, we forecast the strandings of 80 harbor porpoises, 860 common dolphins, and 57 striped dolphins in extreme ASMEs. Comparison of these forecasts with observed strandings informs whether pressures are increasing, decreasing, or stable. Applying probabilistic methods to stranding data facilitates the building of risk-based indicators, required under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, to monitor the effect of pressures on marine mammals. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu |
author_facet |
Bouchard, Colin Bracken, Cameron Dabin, Willy Van Canneyt, Olivier Ridoux, Vincent Spitz, Jérôme Authier, Matthieu |
author_sort |
Bouchard, Colin |
title |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_short |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_full |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_fullStr |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_full_unstemmed |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
title_sort |
risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: using stranding data to inform conservation practice |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://prodinra.inra.fr/ft/3806815B-99E8-4E8C-817B-149F1E8B37C4 http://prodinra.inra.fr/record/463562 https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 |
genre |
Phocoena phocoena |
genre_facet |
Phocoena phocoena |
op_source |
Conservation Letters , 10 p. (2019) |
op_rights |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12639 |
container_title |
Conservation Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1766167956808531968 |