Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall
Posted January 17, 2024 on medRxiv. The development of effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) for climate-driven zoonotic diseases has been hindered by a lack of predictors with adequate lead time for effective interventions. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled phenomena present predictability beyond the atmosp...
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ftinraparis:oai:HAL:pasteur-04559670v1 2024-10-06T13:51:11+00:00 Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall San-José, Adrià Aoun, Karim Lemrani, Meryem Idis, Mhaidi Bouratbine, Aida Paul, Richard, E. Rodó, Xavier Instituto de Salud Global - Institute For Global Health Barcelona (ISGlobal) Institut Pasteur de Tunis Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP) Institut Pasteur du Maroc Écologie et Émergence des Pathogènes Transmis par les Arthropodes / Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens Institut Pasteur Paris (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) A.SJ was supported by a fellowship from “la Caixa” Foundation, Spain (ID 100010434, fellowship code LCF/BQ/DR 19/11740017). A. SJ and X.R . acknowledge the support from the grant CEX2018-000806-S funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. 2024-04-25 https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670 https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670v1/document https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670v1/file/2023.12.14.23299949v3.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 en eng HAL CCSD info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 doi:10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 MEDRXIV: 2023.12.14.23299949 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670 2024 [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] info:eu-repo/semantics/preprint Preprints, Working Papers, . 2024 ftinraparis https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 2024-09-24T14:49:08Z Posted January 17, 2024 on medRxiv. The development of effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) for climate-driven zoonotic diseases has been hindered by a lack of predictors with adequate lead time for effective interventions. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled phenomena present predictability beyond the atmospheric deterministic limits and therefore are potentially useful climate drivers to be integrated in mathematical models. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been used to forecast disease dynamics in equatorial and tropical regions, there is a lack of similar applications for temperate areas, likely because of the perceived unpredictability of atmospheric systems such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study challenges this notion by establishing a connection between the NAO and its oceanic counterpart, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), revealing common low-frequency components that strongly modulate Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Northern Africa. We demonstrate not only short-term couplings, such as the known NAO’s impact on seasonal rainfall, which subsequently affects CL incidence, but we also uncover a significant lagged effect of approximately three years on rainfall and four years on CL incidence. Our findings reveal a unified, multiscale mechanism that influences CL epidemiology across different time scales, underscoring the predictive skill for short and long term time frames, which should be integrated in CL forecasting models. Report North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRA |
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Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRA |
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English |
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[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
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[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] San-José, Adrià Aoun, Karim Lemrani, Meryem Idis, Mhaidi Bouratbine, Aida Paul, Richard, E. Rodó, Xavier Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall |
topic_facet |
[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
description |
Posted January 17, 2024 on medRxiv. The development of effective Early Warning Systems (EWS) for climate-driven zoonotic diseases has been hindered by a lack of predictors with adequate lead time for effective interventions. Atmosphere-Ocean coupled phenomena present predictability beyond the atmospheric deterministic limits and therefore are potentially useful climate drivers to be integrated in mathematical models. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been used to forecast disease dynamics in equatorial and tropical regions, there is a lack of similar applications for temperate areas, likely because of the perceived unpredictability of atmospheric systems such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study challenges this notion by establishing a connection between the NAO and its oceanic counterpart, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), revealing common low-frequency components that strongly modulate Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Northern Africa. We demonstrate not only short-term couplings, such as the known NAO’s impact on seasonal rainfall, which subsequently affects CL incidence, but we also uncover a significant lagged effect of approximately three years on rainfall and four years on CL incidence. Our findings reveal a unified, multiscale mechanism that influences CL epidemiology across different time scales, underscoring the predictive skill for short and long term time frames, which should be integrated in CL forecasting models. |
author2 |
Instituto de Salud Global - Institute For Global Health Barcelona (ISGlobal) Institut Pasteur de Tunis Réseau International des Instituts Pasteur (RIIP) Institut Pasteur du Maroc Écologie et Émergence des Pathogènes Transmis par les Arthropodes / Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens Institut Pasteur Paris (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA) A.SJ was supported by a fellowship from “la Caixa” Foundation, Spain (ID 100010434, fellowship code LCF/BQ/DR 19/11740017). A. SJ and X.R . acknowledge the support from the grant CEX2018-000806-S funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. |
format |
Report |
author |
San-José, Adrià Aoun, Karim Lemrani, Meryem Idis, Mhaidi Bouratbine, Aida Paul, Richard, E. Rodó, Xavier |
author_facet |
San-José, Adrià Aoun, Karim Lemrani, Meryem Idis, Mhaidi Bouratbine, Aida Paul, Richard, E. Rodó, Xavier |
author_sort |
San-José, Adrià |
title |
Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall |
title_short |
Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall |
title_full |
Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall |
title_fullStr |
Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multiscale predictability of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Morocco and Tunisia through the AMO-NAO coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall |
title_sort |
multiscale predictability of cutaneous leishmaniasis in morocco and tunisia through the amo-nao coupling and its modulation of regional rainfall |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670 https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670v1/document https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670v1/file/2023.12.14.23299949v3.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
https://pasteur.hal.science/pasteur-04559670 2024 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 doi:10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 MEDRXIV: 2023.12.14.23299949 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.14.23299949 |
_version_ |
1812179384976539648 |