A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time
International audience Numerous conservation programs are now targeting the mitigation or reduction of anthropogenic pressures to restore biodiversity. The aspirational and ambitious objectives underlying these programs need to translate into timely management actions for maximum impact, a process w...
Published in: | Ecological Indicators |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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2024
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04678183 https://hal.science/hal-04678183/document https://hal.science/hal-04678183/file/Authier_EcolInd_2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 |
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ftinraparis:oai:HAL:hal-04678183v1 2024-09-15T18:10:43+00:00 A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time Authier, Matthieu Bouchard, Colin Dars, Cécile Spitz, Jérôme Observatoire pour la Conservation de la Mégafaune Marine (PELAGIS) LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés (LIENSs) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) 2024 https://hal.science/hal-04678183 https://hal.science/hal-04678183/document https://hal.science/hal-04678183/file/Authier_EcolInd_2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 hal-04678183 https://hal.science/hal-04678183 https://hal.science/hal-04678183/document https://hal.science/hal-04678183/file/Authier_EcolInd_2024.pdf doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 WOS: 001218019400001 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1470-160X EISSN: 1872-7034 Ecological Indicators https://hal.science/hal-04678183 Ecological Indicators, 2024, 160, pp.111820. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820⟩ Strandings Extreme value theory Good environmental status Ecological forecasting Die-offMass mortality event [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2024 ftinraparis https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 2024-09-03T14:37:18Z International audience Numerous conservation programs are now targeting the mitigation or reduction of anthropogenic pressures to restore biodiversity. The aspirational and ambitious objectives underlying these programs need to translate into timely management actions for maximum impact, a process whose first steps assume efficient monitoring and appropriate indicators. Capitalizing on a well-coordinated stranding network, we developed further a risk-based indicator informing indirectly on pressures resulting in at-sea-mortality events of small cetaceans. This indicator uses Extreme Value Theory to forecast the expected maximum number of cetacean strandings on the French seaboard adjacent to three sub-regions defined by the ’Marine Strategy Framework Directive’ of the European Union. A comparison of forecasts and observations allows (i) a risk assessment, and (ii) inference on the trajectory towards ’Good Environmental Status’ on a time-scale aligning with the 6-years cycle required by the Directive, thereby allowing stakeholders to make informed and timely decisions. We applied the use of the indicators on 3 species illustrating different case studies: the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in the Channel, the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the Bay of Biscay, and the striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Our results showed notably how by-catch in fisheries remains a large threat on short-beaked common dolphins, with no sign of abating Article in Journal/Newspaper Harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRA Ecological Indicators 160 111820 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique: ProdINRA |
op_collection_id |
ftinraparis |
language |
English |
topic |
Strandings Extreme value theory Good environmental status Ecological forecasting Die-offMass mortality event [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering |
spellingShingle |
Strandings Extreme value theory Good environmental status Ecological forecasting Die-offMass mortality event [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering Authier, Matthieu Bouchard, Colin Dars, Cécile Spitz, Jérôme A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time |
topic_facet |
Strandings Extreme value theory Good environmental status Ecological forecasting Die-offMass mortality event [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering |
description |
International audience Numerous conservation programs are now targeting the mitigation or reduction of anthropogenic pressures to restore biodiversity. The aspirational and ambitious objectives underlying these programs need to translate into timely management actions for maximum impact, a process whose first steps assume efficient monitoring and appropriate indicators. Capitalizing on a well-coordinated stranding network, we developed further a risk-based indicator informing indirectly on pressures resulting in at-sea-mortality events of small cetaceans. This indicator uses Extreme Value Theory to forecast the expected maximum number of cetacean strandings on the French seaboard adjacent to three sub-regions defined by the ’Marine Strategy Framework Directive’ of the European Union. A comparison of forecasts and observations allows (i) a risk assessment, and (ii) inference on the trajectory towards ’Good Environmental Status’ on a time-scale aligning with the 6-years cycle required by the Directive, thereby allowing stakeholders to make informed and timely decisions. We applied the use of the indicators on 3 species illustrating different case studies: the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in the Channel, the common dolphin (Delphinus delphis) in the Bay of Biscay, and the striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba) in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Our results showed notably how by-catch in fisheries remains a large threat on short-beaked common dolphins, with no sign of abating |
author2 |
Observatoire pour la Conservation de la Mégafaune Marine (PELAGIS) LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés (LIENSs) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Authier, Matthieu Bouchard, Colin Dars, Cécile Spitz, Jérôme |
author_facet |
Authier, Matthieu Bouchard, Colin Dars, Cécile Spitz, Jérôme |
author_sort |
Authier, Matthieu |
title |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time |
title_short |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time |
title_full |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time |
title_fullStr |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time |
title_full_unstemmed |
A risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: Assessing trends and changes over time |
title_sort |
risk-based forecast of extreme mortality events in small cetaceans: assessing trends and changes over time |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04678183 https://hal.science/hal-04678183/document https://hal.science/hal-04678183/file/Authier_EcolInd_2024.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 |
genre |
Harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena |
genre_facet |
Harbour porpoise Phocoena phocoena |
op_source |
ISSN: 1470-160X EISSN: 1872-7034 Ecological Indicators https://hal.science/hal-04678183 Ecological Indicators, 2024, 160, pp.111820. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 hal-04678183 https://hal.science/hal-04678183 https://hal.science/hal-04678183/document https://hal.science/hal-04678183/file/Authier_EcolInd_2024.pdf doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 WOS: 001218019400001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.111820 |
container_title |
Ecological Indicators |
container_volume |
160 |
container_start_page |
111820 |
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1810448303473557504 |