Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses
In this work the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM), under the framework of the COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Pr...
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ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/7353 2023-05-15T17:34:15+02:00 Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses Bellucci, Alessio Gualdi, Silvio Scoccimarro, Enrico Navarra, Antonio Masina, Simona Storto, Andrea Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Navarra, Antonio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Masina, Simona; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Storto, Andrea; CMCC CMCC Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia 2011-04 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7353 en eng EGU General Assembly 2011 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7353 open decadal predictions ocean initialization climate models 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate Conference paper 2011 ftingv 2022-07-29T06:06:05Z In this work the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM), under the framework of the COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) EU Project, are investigated. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast mode. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-members ensembles of 30-years simulations, start- ing at 5-years intervals from 1960 to 2005, using CMIP5 historical radiative forcing conditions (including green- house gases, aerosols and solar irradiance variability) for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4.5 scenario settings for the 2005-2035 period. The ocean initial state is provided by ocean syntheses differing by assimilation methodologies and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean anal- yses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system is analysed at both global and regional scale as well as the processes underlying the enhanced predictability exhibited over specific regions (most notably, in the North Atlantic) Unpublished Wien, Austria 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano open Conference Object North Atlantic Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) |
op_collection_id |
ftingv |
language |
English |
topic |
decadal predictions ocean initialization climate models 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate |
spellingShingle |
decadal predictions ocean initialization climate models 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate Bellucci, Alessio Gualdi, Silvio Scoccimarro, Enrico Navarra, Antonio Masina, Simona Storto, Andrea Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses |
topic_facet |
decadal predictions ocean initialization climate models 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate |
description |
In this work the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM), under the framework of the COMBINE (Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for Better Climate Prediction and Projection) EU Project, are investigated. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast mode. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-members ensembles of 30-years simulations, start- ing at 5-years intervals from 1960 to 2005, using CMIP5 historical radiative forcing conditions (including green- house gases, aerosols and solar irradiance variability) for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4.5 scenario settings for the 2005-2035 period. The ocean initial state is provided by ocean syntheses differing by assimilation methodologies and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean anal- yses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system is analysed at both global and regional scale as well as the processes underlying the enhanced predictability exhibited over specific regions (most notably, in the North Atlantic) Unpublished Wien, Austria 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano open |
author2 |
Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Navarra, Antonio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Masina, Simona; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia Storto, Andrea; CMCC CMCC Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Bellucci, Alessio Gualdi, Silvio Scoccimarro, Enrico Navarra, Antonio Masina, Simona Storto, Andrea |
author_facet |
Bellucci, Alessio Gualdi, Silvio Scoccimarro, Enrico Navarra, Antonio Masina, Simona Storto, Andrea |
author_sort |
Bellucci, Alessio |
title |
Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses |
title_short |
Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses |
title_full |
Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses |
title_fullStr |
Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal climate predictions with the CMCC-CM coupled OAGCM initialized with ocean analyses |
title_sort |
decadal climate predictions with the cmcc-cm coupled oagcm initialized with ocean analyses |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7353 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
EGU General Assembly 2011 http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7353 |
op_rights |
open |
_version_ |
1766133021759504384 |