Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake

A large earthquake preparation is often manifested in correlation of seismicity in an area whose characteristic dimension greatly exceeds a dimension of source of main shock. Zfller et al. [G. Zfller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point...

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Published in:Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Main Authors: Tyupkin, Yu. S., Di Giovambattista, R.
Other Authors: Tyupkin, Yu. S.; Geophysical Center, RAS, Molodezhnaya 3, 117296 Moscow, Russian Federation, Di Giovambattista, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy, Geophysical Center, RAS, Molodezhnaya 3, 117296 Moscow, Russian Federation, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2005
Subjects:
earthquake dynamics and mechanics
correlation length
04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
Kamchatka
Online Access:http://hdl.handle.net/2122/554
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.10.037
id ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/554
record_format openpolar
institution Open Polar
collection Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)
op_collection_id ftingv
language English
topic earthquake dynamics and mechanics
correlation length
04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
spellingShingle earthquake dynamics and mechanics
correlation length
04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
Tyupkin, Yu. S.
Di Giovambattista, R.
Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake
topic_facet earthquake dynamics and mechanics
correlation length
04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous
description A large earthquake preparation is often manifested in correlation of seismicity in an area whose characteristic dimension greatly exceeds a dimension of source of main shock. Zfller et al. [G. Zfller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167– 2176] show the growth of correlation length of earthquakes prior to nine large earthquakes in California according to a power low. We argue that the algorithm of correlation length estimation proposed by Zfller et al. [G. Zfller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167–2176] can result in a decrease of correlation length preceding its precursory growth before large earthquakes if the area in which earthquake activity is correlated grows with time during a main shock preparation. The correlation length analysis of acoustic emission events recorded in laboratory experiments on destruction of rocks and correlation length analysis of intermediate magnitude earthquakes in the area of large earthquakes preparation on Kamchatka and in Italy confirms the theoretical argument. This effect can be considered as an additional premonitory pattern of large earthquake preparation. Published (85-96) reserved
author2 Tyupkin, Yu. S.; Geophysical Center, RAS, Molodezhnaya 3, 117296 Moscow, Russian Federation
Di Giovambattista, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
Geophysical Center, RAS, Molodezhnaya 3, 117296 Moscow, Russian Federation
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Tyupkin, Yu. S.
Di Giovambattista, R.
author_facet Tyupkin, Yu. S.
Di Giovambattista, R.
author_sort Tyupkin, Yu. S.
title Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake
title_short Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake
title_full Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake
title_fullStr Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake
title_full_unstemmed Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake
title_sort correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake
publishDate 2005
url http://hdl.handle.net/2122/554
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.10.037
genre Kamchatka
genre_facet Kamchatka
op_relation Earth and Planetary Science Letters
/230(2005)
[1] G. Zfller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167– 2176. [2] V.I. Keilis-Borok, L.N. Malinovskaya, One regularity in the occurrence of strong earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 69 (1964) 3019– 3024. [3] V.I. Keilis-Borok, P.N. Shebalin (Eds.), Dynamics of Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 111 (1999) 179– 330. [4] V.I. Keilis-Borok, Earthquake prediction: state-of-the-art and emerging possibilities, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 30 (2002) 1 – 33. [5] M.A. Sadovsky, Randomness and instability in geophysical processes, Fiz. Zemli 2 (1989) 3– 12 (in Russian). [6] L. Knopoff, Self-organization and the development of pattern: implications for earthquake prediction, Am. Philos. Soc Proc. 137 (1993) 339– 349. [7] P. Bak, How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1996, 212 pp. [8] D.L. Turcotte, Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, 1997, 385 pp. [9] D. Sornette, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences. Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, Springer Ser. Synerg., Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2000, 423 pp. [10] B.J. Rundle, D.L. Turcotte, W. Klein (Eds.), Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, DC, 2000, 284 pp. [11] V.G. Kossobokov, V.I. Keilis-Borok, D.L. Turcotte, B.D. Malamud, Implications of a statistical physics approach to earthquake hazard assessment and forecasting, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157 (2002) 2323– 2349. [12] A. Bruce, D. Wallace, Critical point phenomena: universal physics at large length scales, in: P. Davis (Ed.), The New Physics, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1989, pp. 236– 267. [13] Yu.S. Tyupkin, Potential source of earthquake, Izvestiya, Phys. Solid Earth 38 (8) (2000) 669– 674. [14] Yu.S. Tyupkin, Dynamics of formation of potential source of earthquake, Izvestiya, Phys. Solid Earth 40 (2004) 198– 205. [15] Yu.S. Tyupkin, Potential source of earthquake formation: analogy with phase transition, Comput. Seismol. 35 (2004) 296– 311 (in Russian). [16] V. Zaliapin, V.I. Keilis-Borok, M. Ghil, A Boolean delay model of colliding cascades, prediction of critical transitions, J. Stat. Phys. 111 (3–4) (2003) 839– 861. [17] G.F. Pepke, J.M. Carlson, B.E. Shaw, Prediction of large events on a dynamical model of fault, J. Geophys. Res. 99 (1994) 6769– 6788. [18] A.M. Gabrielov, I.V. Zaliapin, W.I. Newman, V.I. Keilis- Borok, Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction, Geophys. J. Int. 143 (2000) 427–437. [19] I. Zaliapin, Z. Liu, G. Zfller, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Turcotte, On increase of earthquake correlation length prior to large earthquakes in California, Comput. Seismol. 33 (2002) 141–161. [20] C. Frohlich, S.D. Davis, Single-link cluster analysis as a method to evaluate spatial and temporal properties of earthquake catalogs, Geophys. J. Int. 100 (1990) 19– 32. [21] V.I. Myachkin, B.V. Kostrov, G.A. Sobolev, O.G. Shamina, Foundation of physics of the source and precursors of earthquake, in: M. Nauka (Ed.), Physics of Earthquake Source, 1975, pp. 6 –29. [22] G.A. Sobolev, A.V. Ponomarev, Physics of Earthquakes and Precursors, Nauka, Moscow, 2003, 270 pp., (in Russian). [23] V.I. Keilis-Borok, I.M. Rotwine, T.V. Sidirenko, Intensification of aftershock sequence as a precursor of large earthquake, DAN SSSR 242 (3) (1978) 567– 569. [24] Yu.S. Tyupkin, The growth of intensity of aftershock sequences before strong earthquakes, Vulkanol. Seismol. 3 (2002) 38–48 (in Russian). [25] G.A. Sobolev, A.V. Ponomarev, Laboratory study of acoustic emission and a refracture stage, Vulkanol. Seismol. 4–5 (1999) 50– 62. Yu.S. Tyupkin, R. Di Giovambattista / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 230 (2005) 85–96 95 [26] X. Lei, How do asperities fracture? An experimental study of unbroken asperities, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 213 (2003) 347–359. [27] V.A. Lyakhovsky, Y. Ben-Zion, A. Agnon, Distributed damage, faulting and friction, J. Geophys. Res. 102 (1997) 27635–27649. [28] D.A. Lockner, J.D. Byerlee, V. Kuksenko, et al., Observation of quasistatic fault growth from acoustic emission, in: B. Evans, T.-F. Wong (Eds.), Fault Mechanics Transport Properties Rocks, Academic Press, London, 1992, pp. 3 –31. [29] R. Di Giovambattista, Yu.S. Tyupkin, Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity before the Umbria-Marche September 26, 1997 earthquakes, J. Seismol. 4 (2000) 589–598. [30] R. Di Giovambattista, Yu.S. Tyupkin, Seismicity patterns before the M=5.8 2002, Palermo (Italy) earthquake: seismic quiescence and accelerating seismicity, Tectonophysics 384 (2004) 243– 255. [31] G. Molchan, O. Dmitrieva, Identification of aftershocks: review and new approaches, Comput. Seismol. 24 (1991) 19– 24 (in Russian). [32] G.A. Sobolev, Yu.S. Tyupkin, Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes on Kamchatka, Volcanol. Seismol. 18 (1997) 433– 446. [33] Yu.V. Riznichenko, Dimensionality of the source of crustal earthquake and the seismic moment, in: M. Nauka (Ed.), Physics of Earthquakes Researches, 1976, pp. 9 – 27 (in Russian). [34] G.C.P. King, D.D. Bowman, The evolution of regional seismicity between large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 108 (B2) (2003) 2096. [35] D.D. Bowman, G. Ouillon, C.G. Sammis, A. Sornette, D. Sornettee, An observation test of the critical earthquake concept, JGR, NB 10 (1998) 24359– 24372.
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spelling ftingv:oai:www.earth-prints.org:2122/554 2024-06-09T07:47:24+00:00 Correlation length as an indicator of critical point behavior prior to a large earthquake Tyupkin, Yu. S. Di Giovambattista, R. Tyupkin, Yu. S.; Geophysical Center, RAS, Molodezhnaya 3, 117296 Moscow, Russian Federation Di Giovambattista, R.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy Geophysical Center, RAS, Molodezhnaya 3, 117296 Moscow, Russian Federation Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via di Vigna Murata 605, 00143 Rome, Italy 2005 561258 bytes application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/2122/554 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.10.037 en eng Earth and Planetary Science Letters /230(2005) [1] G. Zfller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167– 2176. [2] V.I. Keilis-Borok, L.N. Malinovskaya, One regularity in the occurrence of strong earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 69 (1964) 3019– 3024. [3] V.I. Keilis-Borok, P.N. Shebalin (Eds.), Dynamics of Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 111 (1999) 179– 330. [4] V.I. Keilis-Borok, Earthquake prediction: state-of-the-art and emerging possibilities, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 30 (2002) 1 – 33. [5] M.A. Sadovsky, Randomness and instability in geophysical processes, Fiz. Zemli 2 (1989) 3– 12 (in Russian). [6] L. Knopoff, Self-organization and the development of pattern: implications for earthquake prediction, Am. Philos. Soc Proc. 137 (1993) 339– 349. [7] P. Bak, How Nature Works: The Science of Self-Organized Criticality, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1996, 212 pp. [8] D.L. Turcotte, Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, 1997, 385 pp. [9] D. Sornette, Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences. Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, Springer Ser. Synerg., Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag, New York, 2000, 423 pp. [10] B.J. Rundle, D.L. Turcotte, W. Klein (Eds.), Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, DC, 2000, 284 pp. [11] V.G. Kossobokov, V.I. Keilis-Borok, D.L. Turcotte, B.D. Malamud, Implications of a statistical physics approach to earthquake hazard assessment and forecasting, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157 (2002) 2323– 2349. [12] A. Bruce, D. Wallace, Critical point phenomena: universal physics at large length scales, in: P. Davis (Ed.), The New Physics, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1989, pp. 236– 267. [13] Yu.S. Tyupkin, Potential source of earthquake, Izvestiya, Phys. Solid Earth 38 (8) (2000) 669– 674. [14] Yu.S. Tyupkin, Dynamics of formation of potential source of earthquake, Izvestiya, Phys. Solid Earth 40 (2004) 198– 205. [15] Yu.S. Tyupkin, Potential source of earthquake formation: analogy with phase transition, Comput. Seismol. 35 (2004) 296– 311 (in Russian). [16] V. Zaliapin, V.I. Keilis-Borok, M. Ghil, A Boolean delay model of colliding cascades, prediction of critical transitions, J. Stat. Phys. 111 (3–4) (2003) 839– 861. [17] G.F. Pepke, J.M. Carlson, B.E. Shaw, Prediction of large events on a dynamical model of fault, J. Geophys. Res. 99 (1994) 6769– 6788. [18] A.M. Gabrielov, I.V. Zaliapin, W.I. Newman, V.I. Keilis- Borok, Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction, Geophys. J. Int. 143 (2000) 427–437. [19] I. Zaliapin, Z. Liu, G. Zfller, V. Keilis-Borok, D. Turcotte, On increase of earthquake correlation length prior to large earthquakes in California, Comput. Seismol. 33 (2002) 141–161. [20] C. Frohlich, S.D. Davis, Single-link cluster analysis as a method to evaluate spatial and temporal properties of earthquake catalogs, Geophys. J. Int. 100 (1990) 19– 32. [21] V.I. Myachkin, B.V. Kostrov, G.A. Sobolev, O.G. Shamina, Foundation of physics of the source and precursors of earthquake, in: M. Nauka (Ed.), Physics of Earthquake Source, 1975, pp. 6 –29. [22] G.A. Sobolev, A.V. Ponomarev, Physics of Earthquakes and Precursors, Nauka, Moscow, 2003, 270 pp., (in Russian). [23] V.I. Keilis-Borok, I.M. Rotwine, T.V. Sidirenko, Intensification of aftershock sequence as a precursor of large earthquake, DAN SSSR 242 (3) (1978) 567– 569. [24] Yu.S. Tyupkin, The growth of intensity of aftershock sequences before strong earthquakes, Vulkanol. Seismol. 3 (2002) 38–48 (in Russian). [25] G.A. Sobolev, A.V. Ponomarev, Laboratory study of acoustic emission and a refracture stage, Vulkanol. Seismol. 4–5 (1999) 50– 62. Yu.S. Tyupkin, R. Di Giovambattista / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 230 (2005) 85–96 95 [26] X. Lei, How do asperities fracture? An experimental study of unbroken asperities, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 213 (2003) 347–359. [27] V.A. Lyakhovsky, Y. Ben-Zion, A. Agnon, Distributed damage, faulting and friction, J. Geophys. Res. 102 (1997) 27635–27649. [28] D.A. Lockner, J.D. Byerlee, V. Kuksenko, et al., Observation of quasistatic fault growth from acoustic emission, in: B. Evans, T.-F. Wong (Eds.), Fault Mechanics Transport Properties Rocks, Academic Press, London, 1992, pp. 3 –31. [29] R. Di Giovambattista, Yu.S. Tyupkin, Spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity before the Umbria-Marche September 26, 1997 earthquakes, J. Seismol. 4 (2000) 589–598. [30] R. Di Giovambattista, Yu.S. Tyupkin, Seismicity patterns before the M=5.8 2002, Palermo (Italy) earthquake: seismic quiescence and accelerating seismicity, Tectonophysics 384 (2004) 243– 255. [31] G. Molchan, O. Dmitrieva, Identification of aftershocks: review and new approaches, Comput. Seismol. 24 (1991) 19– 24 (in Russian). [32] G.A. Sobolev, Yu.S. Tyupkin, Low-seismicity precursors of large earthquakes on Kamchatka, Volcanol. Seismol. 18 (1997) 433– 446. [33] Yu.V. Riznichenko, Dimensionality of the source of crustal earthquake and the seismic moment, in: M. Nauka (Ed.), Physics of Earthquakes Researches, 1976, pp. 9 – 27 (in Russian). [34] G.C.P. King, D.D. Bowman, The evolution of regional seismicity between large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 108 (B2) (2003) 2096. [35] D.D. Bowman, G. Ouillon, C.G. Sammis, A. Sornette, D. Sornettee, An observation test of the critical earthquake concept, JGR, NB 10 (1998) 24359– 24372. http://hdl.handle.net/2122/554 doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2004.10.037 restricted earthquake dynamics and mechanics correlation length 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous article 2005 ftingv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.10.037 2024-05-15T08:04:29Z A large earthquake preparation is often manifested in correlation of seismicity in an area whose characteristic dimension greatly exceeds a dimension of source of main shock. Zfller et al. [G. Zfller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167– 2176] show the growth of correlation length of earthquakes prior to nine large earthquakes in California according to a power low. We argue that the algorithm of correlation length estimation proposed by Zfller et al. [G. Zfller, S. Hainzl, J. Kurths, Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 106 (2001) 2167–2176] can result in a decrease of correlation length preceding its precursory growth before large earthquakes if the area in which earthquake activity is correlated grows with time during a main shock preparation. The correlation length analysis of acoustic emission events recorded in laboratory experiments on destruction of rocks and correlation length analysis of intermediate magnitude earthquakes in the area of large earthquakes preparation on Kamchatka and in Italy confirms the theoretical argument. This effect can be considered as an additional premonitory pattern of large earthquake preparation. Published (85-96) reserved Article in Journal/Newspaper Kamchatka Earth-Prints (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) Earth and Planetary Science Letters 230 1-2 85 96

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